Monday, October 05, 2020

Dear Diary

Die Gedanken Sind Frei

Die gedanken sind frei
My thoughts freely flower
Die gedanken sind frei
My thoughts give me power
No scholar can map them
No hunter can trap them
No man can deny
Die gedanken sind frei
I think as I please
And this gives me pleasure
My conscience decrees
This right I must treasure
My thoughts will not cater
To duke or dictator
No man can deny
Die gedanken sind frei
Tyrants can take me
And throw me in prison
My thoughts will burst forth
Like blossoms in season
Foundations may crumble
And structures may tumble
But free men shall cry
Die gedanken sind frei
As with many people these days, I fear that society is going mad.  My friends and family are horrified to learn what I truly think, and the only way to get along is to keep some thoughts to myself.  But what do I really think?  I've found that writing down my thoughts is helpful.  It forces me to organize them and thus gives me confidence in what I believe and why.

I'm conflicted as to who to vote for in the presidential election.  I've founded that suggesting I might vote for Trump is disruptive to my personal life, since family and friends then cut off all conversation with me, at least for a time until it's clear that I won't say anything more on the subject.  On the other hand, a vote is a statement to friends and family as much as it is a means of electing our national leadership.  Self-censorship is probably not good for the country, but probably is good for me personally.

So what is best for the country?  I'm convinced that the media is toxic and curing this illness is more important than getting rid of Trump.  After all, on many things Trump is right and the mainstream media is wrong:
  • Russia did not have a big influence in the 2016 election in favor of Trump.
  • The intelligence community was wrong in their 2017 "intelligence community assessment".
  • Adam Schiff was wrong in promoting the Steele Dossier and indicating that there is proof that Trump colluded with Russia.
  • Hydroxychloroquine is not dangerous.
  • Trump did not seriously suggest that people drink bleach to ward off covid-19.
  • The covid pandemic is overblown.  It is not anywhere near as deadly as portrayed by the conventional media.  The lockdown of society for the last 7 months has been overdone.
  • The Biden family behaved in a corrupt manner in Ukraine.
  • Trump's behavior with Russia (Mueller investigation, etc) and Ukraine (impeachment) has been misrepresented.  
  • The woke movement and continual shouting of "racism" in a crowded theater has resulted in much harm to the country and to minority communities in particular.
  • Identitarian politics are immoral and racist, and mostly stupid as in Robin De Angelo's book "White Fragility".
  • Putin is not the devil.  Trump is not Hitler.
  • The U.S. foreign policy (Republican and Democratic) is driven by lies and immoral double standards.  See Syria, Afghanistan, Russia, China, Iran, Bolivia, Venezuela.
In spite of all this, I love my country and my friends and family.  Without these, I am nothing.  Politics aside, I love my relationships and do not want to harm them.

I want to acknowledge the legitimate issues underlying Trump Derangement Syndrome:
  • American society is deeply unfair and has been so since its racist founding.
  • Trump and the Republicans deny global warming and sensible measures to prevent our civilization from destroying the planet.
  • Trump and the Republicans have a long history of lying and cheating to maintain and enhance the unjust status quo.
  • Trump himself is a blustering narcissist who sets a bad model for the country.
How can so many intelligent people see only one side of the story?  We seem to be witnessing mass hysteria and self-delusional groupthink.  Perhaps this was what it was like in Nazi Germany?  Or Soviet Russia where the state media came to be disbelieved, yet to openly challenge the media was treasonous?  Maybe this was what America was like at the time of its founding, with the racist patriarchy unquestioned by the conventional wisdom?  Perhaps most countries are this way most of the time as the elite control the range of acceptable thought?

If I were to publish this and someone were to read it and ridicule me publicly for thinking out loud, would that be justified?  

Saturday, October 03, 2020

Democracy or Empire?

In the news this past week:  CIA Director Haspel Blocking Declassification Of Russiagate Documents and Haspel Blocking Declassification Of Russiagate Documents To Protect CIA's Reputation

"Unfortunately those releases and declassifications according to multiple sources I've talked to are being blocked by CIA director Gina Haspel who herself was the main link between Washington and London," Davis said.

"As the London station chief from John Brennan's CIA during the 2016 election. Recall, it was London where Christopher Steele was doing all this work. And I'm told that it was Gina Haspel personally who is blocking a continued declassification of these documents that will show the American people the truth of what actually happened."

For four years, our national discourse has been dominated by the question of whether or not our president treasonously conspired with Russia. Even if there was no treason (as now is clear), the Trump presidency is viewed by many as illegitimate because it was determined by Russia. On January 6, 2017, just before Trump took office as president, the Directory of National Intelligence issued a report claiming with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. As the New York Times put it

In unequivocal language, the report pins responsibility for the election attack directly on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, ruling out the possibility that it was ordered by intelligence officials or simply carried out by Kremlin supporters...   

Six months later, the New York Times blasted Trump in an article entitled Trump’s Deflections and Denials on Russia Frustrate Even His Allies:  

The latest presidential tweets were proof to dismayed members of Mr. Trump’s party that he still refuses to acknowledge a basic fact agreed upon by 17 American intelligence agencies that he now oversees: Russia orchestrated the attacks, and did it to help get him elected.

The Times was wrong about this as they admitted 2 weeks later -- Trump Misleads on Russian Meddling: Why 17 Intelligence Agencies Don’t Need to Agree:

President Trump said on Thursday that only “three or four” of the United States’ 17 intelligence agencies had concluded that Russia interfered in the presidential election — a statement that while technically accurate, is misleading and suggests widespread dissent among American intelligence agencies when none has emerged.

The “three or four” agencies referred to by Mr. Trump are the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the F.B.I. and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, all of which determined that Russia interfered in the election. Their work was compiled into a report, and a declassified version was released on Jan. 6 by the director of national intelligence. It said that all four agencies had “high confidence” that Russian spies had tried to interfere in the election on the orders of President Vladimir V. Putin...

Mr. Trump was also correct about inaccurate news reports. Some, including an article in The New York Times, incorrectly reported that all 17 American intelligence agencies had endorsed the assessment. 

The Times was again wrong in reporting that "all four agencies had “high confidence” that Russian spies had tried to interfere in the election on the orders of President Vladimir V. Putin".  As the Times itself had reported on January 6:

the N.S.A. was less certain than the other agencies that Russia was trying to help Mr. Trump

So this is confusing.  As the years went by, a special prosecutor led by Robert Mueller was empowered to investigate the Russian interference and possible treason by Trump.  Mueller found nothing treasonous, but continued to support the notion that Russia interfered in the election.  However, there was a great deal of controversy regarding the finding that Trump did not conspire with the Russians, and the Democrats and mainstream media contended that was likely because Trump obstructed the investigation.  The partisan divide deepened and hardened.

Since the release of the Mueller Report, the original intelligence tied to both Russian interference and possible Trump collusion has continued to unwind, along with our domestic political fabric.  From How CIA's Brennan Overruled Dissenting Analysts Who Concluded Russia Favored Hillary:

The ICA, which was hastily put together over 30 days at the direction of Obama intelligence czar James Clapper, did not follow longstanding rules for crafting such assessments. It was not farmed out to other key intelligence agencies for their input, and did not include an annex for dissent, among other extraordinary departures from past tradecraft.

It did, however, include a two-page annex summarizing allegations from a dossier compiled by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele.  His claim that Putin had personally ordered cyberattacks on the Clinton campaign to help Trump win happened to echo the key finding of the ICA that Brennan supported. Brennan had briefed Democratic senators about allegations from the dossier on Capitol Hill.

“Some of the FBI source’s [Steele’s] reporting is consistent with the judgment in the assessment,” stated the appended summary, which the two intelligence sources say was written by Brennan loyalists. “The FBI source claimed, for example, that Putin ordered the influence effort with the aim of defeating Secretary Clinton, whom Putin ‘feared and hated.’ “

Steele's reporting has since been discredited by the Justice Department’s inspector general as rumor-based opposition research on Trump paid for by the Clinton campaign. Several allegations have been debunked, even by Steele’s own primary source, who confessed to the FBI that he ginned the rumors up with some of his Russian drinking buddies to earn money from Steele.

Former FBI Director James Comey told the Justice Department’s watchdog that the Steele material, which he referred to as the “Crown material,” was incorporated with the ICA because it was “corroborative of the central thesis of the assessment “The IC analysts found it credible on its face,” Comey said. 

So our democracy is coming unraveled on the basis of intelligence estimates which have been reported as the truth by the New York Times and other mainstream outlets, yet do not stand the test of time.  We could clear up the matter by releasing the evidence used to formulate the intelligence estimate, but this would apparently embarrass the CIA.  Our elite media passes on the work of the intelligence community as truth even when the evidence cannot be verified because of security concerns.  Protecting intelligence sources in the new cold war is thus seen as more important than having a viable democracy based upon truth.

Claims, by the mainstream media and Democratic party leadership, of Russian interference in our elections have been used to discredit the legitimacy of Trump's presidency.  In the interest of democracy, the evidence for the Russian interference should be declassified.  Restoring faith in our system of government is more important than protecting in our sources in the new Cold War, especially now that there is good reason to suspect that the sources have not been accurate.

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