Tuesday, January 05, 2021

Fear of COVID and Masks Outdoors

 Letter written to friends 1/5/2021:

Obviously I don't have a definitive answer, but rather some personal beliefs.  Our beliefs are based upon who we trust, as well as how much time and energy we're willing to devote to research.  In my view, the conventional wisdom and even much of the science has been politicized.  Over the past year, I've come to trust certain scientists and medical professionals who seem non-partisan and have been regularly reporting on their reading of the scientific journals and reports, as well as reporting their personal experiences as doctors treating patients with covid.  Here is what I've come to believe:
  • Risk of transmission outdoors is negligible.  Almost all documented coronavirus transmissions have occurred indoors.   I never wear a mask outdoors. 
  • COVID is real and serious.
  • COVID is treatable.  Ivermectin has proven effective.  Vitamin D deficiency is highly correlated with covid severity, so I take Vitamin D supplements and urge you to do the same.  Dexamethasone is effective.  Monoclonal antibody treatments are safe and effective.  (Remdesivir is overpriced and not as effective as alternatives.)
  • The vaccines look to be safe and effective, although the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are using the new mRNA  technique and thus more risky than the AstraZeneca vaccine and others using the techniques proven safe and effective over a longer period of time.
  • If one has symptoms of covid, one should try to start treatment immediately and not wait for test results.  One can use telemedicine to get prescriptions for effective treatments without ever going to a doctor or hospital, I believe.  CVS will provide monoclonal antibody medicine treatment.
  • Risk of reinfection with covid, or infection after vaccination by a mutated variety is low I believe.  However, this is certainly possible and we'll have to follow the science and expert recommendation as the virus evolves along with the population of vaccinated people.
The political aspects of the science and conventional wisdom are fascinating, and worth discussion.  But we should "separate the people from the problem", as the authors of Getting to Yes might say.

Again, these are just my personal beliefs, and I could be wrong.

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