Wednesday, August 14, 2019

The Great Hack - Politics, Technology, and Dirty Tricks



I haven't seen the movie, but I did read several reviews, so I have an idea of what it's about.

One of my interests these days is ethical discourse.  With our new tools, including the Internet and social media, we're able to learn much more than was possible in previous generations.  Much of the knowledge available online is uncontroversial and seems useful without harmful side effects.  Wikipedia fits in this category for the most part.  With regard to political and moral issues, however, the Internet and social media are breeding grounds for toxic rage.  

Cambridge Analytica was basically a political advertising business that crossed some legal and ethical lines and has consequently been shut down.  Here's Owen Gleiberman in Variety

It’s true that Trump and Cambridge Analytica committed a more serious ethical breach by using a deceptive app to mine data without users’ consent. Yet there has been an ongoing debate about this, as conservatives claim (with some justification) that the media has employed a double standard. What seems inarguable is that much of the data mined and analyzed by Cambridge Analytica was, in fact, public. After all, social media is about declaring who you are in a public forum. Gathering that data, and forming profiles out of it, isn’t illegal.  

“The Great Hack” captures how voters were targeted as potential consumers whose tastes in “products” (i.e., candidates) could be manipulated by what we once called advertising, and what we now think of as propaganda. The movie is netted with questions like “How did the dream of the connected world tear us apart?” and “Who was feeding us fear, and how?”

My take is that people are not easily as propagandized as portrayed in The Great Hack.  From Micah Sifry at The Nation:

Unfortunately, the Cambridge Analytica/Facebook scandal also has renewed a very old and disabling fable embraced by many well-meaning people on the left, which is that Americans (and others overseas) keep voting for right-wing authoritarians because they are being manipulated by the media.  I’m old enough to remember the 1980s, when progressives sought to explain Ronald Reagan’s popularity by emphasizing the biases of mainstream media.    

My opinion is that a typical person forms political opinions gradually, over the course of a lifetime.  Politically advertising historically tries to whip up anger in order to motivate people to vote a certain way.  This has been exacerbated in recent years by the social media campaigns of Democrats and Republicans (and many other groups).  My advice is to avoid being swept up in the rage; or at least to reserve rage for where it is truly deserved.

Looking forward to 2020, I recommend that we consider Getting to Yes.  The successful campaign will be the one that includes the most voters.  In 2016, the Democrats were divided between the Hillary and Bernie camps.  If that continues, the Dems are likely to lose to Trump.  The Democratic candidate who seems most likely to bridge that divide is Elizabeth Warren.  

As with all the presidential contenders, outrage is part of the Warren spiel. In her case, the outrage is focused on the way our country is dominated and run by those with extreme wealth.  I don't agree with this entirely, but think it is preferable to outrage against racists, for example.  The term racist is thrown about loosely with the intent of inducing rage.  I would reserve the rage for systemic forms of oppression that overlap with racism, but are not identical -- U.S. foreign policy in Latin America, for example.  The point is that we should pick our battles thoughtfully so as to include the majority in a sane and compassionate alternative to Trump and McConnell.  

As with self-driving cars, the level of artificial intelligence purported in The Great Hack is overstated, in my opinion.  Quoting again from Sifry's review of The Great Hack in The Nation:
Kaiser first worked in politics as an intern on the 2008 Barack Obama campaign, helping its social media team, but The Great Hack implies that she ran his whole Facebook operation. She is not the first person to pump a small role in that campaign into a career-making calling card; Cambridge Analytica is not the first political technology vendor to make big, unproven claims about its abilities. But we live in the age of silicon snake oil. There are millions of dollars to be made selling gullible investors and clients on mumbo-jumbo. Full disclosure: I got to see Kaiser pitch Cambridge Analytica’s wares at close quarters, back in 2015, when the company was briefly a member of the civic tech center I help run in New York City, Civic Hall. I was not impressed.
Evidently, neither was Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign, which paid CA millions of dollars during the Republican primaries. The Great Hack gives CA credit for his victory in the Iowa caucuses—and then makes no mention of what happened soon afterward: The Cruz campaign stopped using its data. Chris Wilson, the campaign’s director of research, analytics, and digital strategy, discovered that more than half the voters CA identified as Cruz supporters in Oklahoma backed other candidates. Regarding the so-called merits of psychographic targeting, Wilson told me CA “market[ed] their usage more aggressively than others and made unsubstantiated campaigns regarding its effectiveness.” On Twitter he called Kaiser a fantasist in 2016 for her claim that the Cruz campaign was planning to use “psy-ops” to manipulate delegates attending the Republican National Convention.
The closer one looks at Kaiser’s claims, the more they dissolve into a young staffer believing the hype that her company’s higher-ups asked her to sell. It’s not for nothing that political scientist Dave Karpf, who has written two books on the use of data in modern campaigns, calls Cambridge Analytica “the Theranos of political data.” Eight GOP political consultants told Ad Age’s Kate Kaye that the company was “all hat and no cattle.”

Political dirty tricks are nothing new, and we have to be vigilant.  For example, Al Sharpton was paid by Roger Stone and the Republicans to discredit Howard Dean in 2004:

While Bush forces like the Club for Growth were buying ads in Iowa assailing then front-runner Howard Dean, Sharpton took center stage at a debate confronting Dean about the absence of blacks in his Vermont cabinet. Stone told the Times that he “helped set the tone and direction” of the Dean attacks, while Charles Halloran, the Sharpton campaign manager installed by Stone, supplied the research. While other Democratic opponents were also attacking Dean, none did it on the advice of a consultant who’s worked in every GOP presidential campaign since his involvement in the Watergate scandals of 1972, including all of the Bush family campaigns.   

We need to focus on working with others to make the world a better place.  Technology is often a double edged sword which can blind us to basics.   

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Logos, Ethos, Pathos


Nathan Robinson, of Current Affairs, wrote the following: 

I don’t like to invoke the authority of the ancient Greeks, but Aristotle really did point out something quite useful in his treatise on rhetoric. He wrote that:
“There are… three means of effecting persuasion. The man who is to be in command of them must, it is clear, be able (1) to reason logically, (2) to understand human character and goodness in their various forms, and (3) to understand the emotions-that is, to name them and describe them, to know their causes and the way in which they are excited.”
Rhetoric consists of logos, ethos, and pathos—logic, emotion, and character.

Let's apply these concepts to my perspective on the current state of politics in the United States. 

1.     The Republicans long ago lost credibility in my eyes.  The Iraq War of 2003 eliminated any doubt in my mind.
2.     The establishment Democrats have lost credibility in my eyes due to two more recent stances:
a.     The anti-Bernie hysteria that began in 2016, and is reminiscent of previous Republican anti-Clinton hysteria.  Please see this recent article by Branko Marcetic which compares the two.
b.     The Russiagate investigation which, in my eyes, has shown most Democrats unable or unwilling to recognize the truth.  Rather, there has been a mass movement to blame the election of Donald Trump on the Russians.  Fox News now has more credibility in my eyes, on this issue.  Instead of accepting that Mueller's report was based on faulty intelligence, the Dems have doubled down on the faulty/fraudulent intelligence.  Insinuendo: Why the Mueller Report Doth Repeat So Much provides a clear look at what has been going on in this regard.  Conveniently for my analogy, Mueller was also FBI Director in 2003 pushing the bogus "intelligence" that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. ("Baghdad has the capability and, we presume, the will to use biological, chemical, or radiological weapons against US domestic targets in the event of a US invasion.")  Saddam Hussein has morphed into Vladimir Putin.

Thus, the Democrats have adopted the tactics of their nemeses, the Republicans. Opposition figures to the left are thoughtlessly demonized.  Russia is blamed for our problems.

In my circles of friends and relatives, nobody agrees with me on this.  The best response I get is when people listen a bit and agree with certain things, while not passing judgment on others.  Other times, people talk past me, not responding to points.  Usually the conversation abruptly ends as the other person doesn't respond anymore.  I at least try to end conversations on a good note, with some explanation for my non-response.

The fact is that people often cannot handle the truth.  This is neither good nor bad, but a fact of human nature.  The condition is known as epistemic learned helplessness.  This means that we tend not to go along with weird theories, even if the person propounding a theory seems to have logical arguments.  Most often, we do not have enough knowledge ourselves, in the specific domain under discussion, to argue with the proponent of the weird theory.  But we know that the theory is not backed by the experts we trust, that we do not have enough time to become experts ourselves, and weird theories are often used to fool or cheat us into doing something we shouldn't.

So this brings us full circle -- back to the sphere of trust. Humans operate from a mental model of how the world works.  Integral to this model is the set of people we trust, and this is not easy to change regardless of the facts we learn.  We are continually trying to fit new facts into our mental models, either questioning the facts or expanding our model to incorporate them.  The models have been devloped over the course of a lifetime and are responsible for our mental stability as well as our place in society.  The sphere of trust is not casually modified.

So those of us who are Democrats tend to stay Democrats, and the same with Republicans.  But when a party splits, as both Democrats and Republicans threaten to do at the current time, then societal change is possible.  For example, I will probably be tempted to vote for a third party candidate should the Democrats continue their love affair with Mueller and the anti-Russian war machine.  Third parties haven't broken through in the United States, but they have been significant factors in many presidential elections including the last one.  (Full disclosure: I live in Michigan and voted for Jill Stein.)  And many Republicans dislike Trump and his wing of the party and will not vote for him.

I am tempted to send an email to my 100 closest friends and relatives announcing my disgust with Mueller and Russiagate.  But I think that would be risky for me personally in that it would threaten to harm many relationships.  People would tune me out as a weirdo.  Others might agree, but would be reluctant to do so publicly as it might risk some of their relationships.  The web of trusts is strong..

So Democrats will continue to erode their credibiity by refusing to update their mental models to accommodate the lack of accountability and credibility of our "intelligence" community, as demonstrated in the Russiagate affair.  There is much more about this affair than meets the eye, yet we are not allowed to learn about "intelligence", which is secretive by nature.  Intelligence cannot be shared willy nilly, but rather is shared with the public to support various agendas.  The network of power relations and the consensus sphere of trust is dominated by large media corporations that cooperate with the intelligence agencies.  Those, such as myself, who question the credibility of the whole edifice can best work at the margins and divisions amongst the power players.

Over time, trust in the status quo becomes more superficial, as more people become like me.  The pump is primed for change.  The conditions are ripe.  The table is set.  The process may already be in motion.  So far Elizabeth Warren seems to be navigating the shoals pretty well.  Perhaps she represents the right combination of dramatic change and non-threatening demeanor that people are longing for.  Other options, including more Trump, Biden, Harris, and Sanders, seem likely to explode into conflict.

Elizabeth Warren has the character (credibility - ethos), passion and ability to connect with people (pathos), and reasonable policies (logos - intellect) to carry the day and hopefully pull us back from the brink.

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Fox News Makes More Sense than NPR on Major Issue

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Fox News cuts through the obfuscation that characterizes the Mueller Report.  Mueller ostensibly investigated Trump collusion with Russia, but doesn't have anything clear to say about the details of that topic.  It's clear to me that UK and US intelligent assets were posing as Russian agents, so Mueller can't talk about the fundamental charges that were being investigated.

Here's Fox News with one example: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/why-did-mueller-testimony-focus-134318912.html

Making Sense of the Current Political Environment


Making Sense of the Current Political Environment

Here's how I see things:
1.     Trump is a pathological liar.  He continues a long trend of Republicans in this direction.
2.     In response, the establishment Democrats have abandoned respect for the truth.
3.     The combination of Republican and Democratic incoherence will greatly strengthen populist sentiments.
4.     Some possibilities:
a.     Civil war between Republicans and Democrats -- don't know who would win
b.     Strongman Republican seizes power, clamps down on freedom of press and dissent (a la Putin)
c.      Elizabeth Warren elected and peaceful change begins.  This would require a sequence something like the following:
i.       Stock market crash before March 2020
ii.      Economic distress hurts Trump and establishment Dem popularity
iii.     Establishment Dems realize they can't win and support Warren.
Of course, the Warren presidency is by far the most preferable option.  The alternatives that I can see are catastrophic.
UPDATES below the fold...

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Elon Musk: Technological Visionary or Entrepreneurial Buffoon?

Two Views

Elon Musk is apparently viewed as a genius by many people.  His quirks, such as tweeting bombastic nonsense à la Donald Trump, are forgiven because of his great technological and entrepreneurial contributions.  Others, such as myself, see him as more a symbol of a financial system gone off the rails.  He offers false hope that capitalism, as currently practiced, can solve the most important societal problems.

There is no doubt merit in both perspectives.  Musk has brought great focus to electric cars, causing great investment by others, in addition to the contributions of his own company, Tesla.   Electric cars are critical if we are to attain sustainability as a civilization.  So kudos to Musk for that.  On the other hand, it seems undeniable that Musk's vision is faulty.  Rather than focusing on the electric car business, he spends most of his resources promoting technologies of questionable value and practicality.  I follow his public pronouncements and I don't hear much about building a sustainable society.  Rather I hear more about "autopilot" and "hyperloop".  So where is he trying to lead us?

Headlines and Biographical Notes

I'll now turn to specifics.  Starting with a Google search on "Elon Musk", here are the top results (headline) on Google:

  • Elon Musk says hyperloop hit a top speed of 463 km/h before exploding
  • Elon Musk promises new Hyperloop tunnel after speed record broken
  • Elon Musk: Starship, Super Heavy Will Have 41 Total Engines
  • Elon Musk's AI project to replicate the human brain receives $1 billion from Microsoft

To get another take, with Musk news from a different time, here is a sample of the top news stories on "Elon Musk" from May 2019:

  • Elon Musk says Tesla has a ‘good chance’ of record deliveries this quarter
  • Elon Musk tells Tesla employees in leaked email that customer demand is still high, despite the stock crashing in recent weeks
  • This is hardcore: Elon Musk confronts the bear case
  • Elon Musk sets bold goals. But has he delivered?
  • Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company

Turning from news articles to biographical sketches, we see the following:


Forbes:
  • Elon Musk is working to revolutionize transportation both on Earth and in space.
  • His automaker, Tesla Motors, which was founded in 2003, is bringing fully-electric vehicles to the mass market.
  • He settled with the SEC in September 2018 for making alleged "false statements" about a plan to take Tesla private, and had to step down as chairman.
  • SpaceX, Musk's rocket company, is now valued at more than $20 billion.
Wikipedia:
Elon Reeve Musk FRS (/ˈlɒn/; born June 28, 1971) is a technology entrepreneurinvestor, and engineer.[4][5][6] He holds South African, Canadian, and U.S. citizenship and is the founder, CEO, and lead designer of SpaceX;[7] co-founder, CEO, and product architect of Tesla, Inc.;[8] co-founder and CEO of Neuralink; founder of The Boring Company;[9] co-founder and co-chairman of OpenAI;[10] and co-founder of PayPal. In December 2016, he was ranked 21st on the Forbes list of The World's Most Powerful People.[11] He has a net worth of $22.3 billion and is listed by Forbes as the 40th-richest person in the world...
Musk has stated that the goals of SpaceX, Tesla, and SolarCity revolve around his vision to change the world and humanity.[18] His goals include reducing global warming through sustainable energy production and consumption, and reducing the risk of human extinction by establishing a human colony on Mars. 
So he's a successful businessman who is concerned about the environment and makes several products which address these concerns.  On the other hand, his success in addressing environmental concerns is somewhat overshadowed by his personal wealth and grandiose schemes.

Quirks and Questionable Business Practices

Here are some examples of the odd behaviors which must be considered in evaluating Musk as a societal leader:

"Autopilot" and Driverless Cars

Musk has a long history of misrepresenting Tesla's "Autopilot" feature as imminent full self-driving.  For more than two years, Tesla charged customers $3,000 or more for a "full self-driving" package. Despite years of failed predictions and broken promises,  Musk continues to misrepresent Autopilot in a dangerous, as well as fraudulent, manner. [arstechnica, SeekingAlpha, Jalopnik, Fortune]

Consumer Reports:  "Tesla’s current driver-assist system, ‘Autopilot,’ is no substitute for a human driver. It can’t dependably navigate common road situations on its own, and fails to keep the driver engaged exactly when it is needed most."

Managerial Issues

Investment Scams

  • List of 103 Tesla Mistruths, going back to 2011.  Quite a pattern.
  • List of Musk Predictions and Promises that Have Not Come to Pass 
    There are 45 items listed.  As one example, 7 ½ years ago Musk said that Tesla will never need to raise capital again. Since then, there have been 11 issuances of common stock or convertible notes averaging almost $1 billion each.
  • Elon Musk acted like a jerk, and Tesla stock paid the price (5/2/2018)
    "Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk held a long, odd earnings conference call Wednesday in which he insulted analysts, the media, federal regulators and people who died behind the wheel of his cars...  Tesla on Wednesday disclosed the largest quarterly loss in the history of a company known far and wide for losing vast sums of money, with a net loss of almost $785 million."
  • Tesla Reports Another Doozie (4/24/2019)
    "Tesla reported a zinger of a net loss of $702 million, its third-worst quarterly net loss ever...  The company has $22 billion in liabilities (mostly long-term debt)...  Moody’s rates Tesla 'B3' — six notches into junk and considered highly speculative...  Tesla’s share price has continued to blow out rational minds, even after its 32% drop from the top of the spike in June 2017. The company has a history of nothing but annual losses and cash-burn, and 'production hell,' as its chaotic CEO Elon Musk called it so aptly, is standard operating procedure. It has a global market share of less than 1%. And yet, at the price of $258.66 a share at the close today, Tesla has a market capitalization of $44.7 billion.  By comparison, GM which made $48 billion in net income over the past four years and whose revenues of $147 billion in 2018 were seven times the size of Tesla’s, has a market cap of $56.6 billion."
  • Seven Months After Elon Musk's $420 Tweet Tesla Stock Is Closer To $240
    On Tuesday, August 6th, 2018, Tesla stock closed the trading day at $341.99. The following morning of August 7th at 9:48 am, Elon Musk posted his now infamous tweet, saying, "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured." ...  We have since learned that Elon Musk did not have the "funding secured."  
  • Tesla and SolarCity's merger doesn't appear to have a bright future
    In 2016 Tesla purchased SolarCity for $2.6 billion. Much criticism and backlash had been pivoted towards Elon Musk's decision to acquire the company due to his own personal ties with the company and its co-founders...  Tesla’s 2016 acquisition of SolarCity is looking worse and worse. And its $1 billion solar gigafactory in Buffalo, New York, which the state built, subsidized, and equipped for SolarCity, seems to be primarily operating as a Panasonic plant. [...] In the more than two years since Tesla acquired SolarCity, its overall solar installations have plummeted by more than 76%.
  • Elon Musk Says ‘Hyperloop’ Tunnel Is Now Just a Normal Car Tunnel Because ‘This Is Simple and Just Works’
    in a mere two years we’ve gone from a futuristic vision of electric skates zooming around a variety of vehicles in a network of underground tunnels to—and I cannot stress this enough—a very small, paved tunnel that can fit one (1) car.
  • Boring Company
    Musk's super exciting Boring company, thus far, has done nothing but dig a tunnel with an off the shelf used tunneling machine from China. So many press reports made it sound as if it was some sort of exciting new invention. No. It's a machine they bought.

Two Views Revisited

The evidence points to Musk being a compulsive braggart and liar in the manner of Donald Trump.  That these two men have become obscenely rich and powerful largely on the basis of false promises is an indictment of the elite culture which dominates our society.  It pays to lie.

Trump seems to have no redeeming values.  With Musk, on the other hand, we must ask if his quirkiness is offset by the great contributions he is making to society via his investment in electric cars.  My view is that his car company is poorly managed, and is failing on its own, entrepreneurial, terms.  When Tesla fails, we will still face the challenge of migrating away from fossil fuels.  Tesla engineers, paid by Musk, will have contributed somewhat to electric car technology. But the system in which Musk thrived, where capitalist investment in new technologies solves society's most pressing problems, has reached a dead end.

Mush has earned billions by duping gullible investors and consumers.  Let's not hide this inconvenient truth.




Tuesday, July 16, 2019

"People of Color"

The Squad are considered to be 4 women of color.  However, 2 are white (Tlaib and Ocasio Cortez) by the eyeball test.  I guess, at some point in American history, Italians would have been considered people of color.

So Kevin Drum's post today should be considered in that light.  Here's Kevin quoting the RNC to make his point that electoral Demographics are swinging inexorably in favor the Dems:
In 1980, exit polls tell us that the electorate was 88 percent white. In 2012, it was 72 percent white….According to the Pew Hispanic Center, in 2050, whites will be 47 percent of the country….The Republican Party must be committed to building a lasting relationship within the African American community year-round, based on mutual respect and with a spirit of caring.
Kevin's further point is that the Republicans have given up on the African American community and rather doubled down on racism. 

This would make sense if people such as AOC and Rashida Tlaib are people of color and will remain so along with their descendants in perpetuity.  But the fact is that people come to the United States because they want to experience the American Dream.  The want to live as the white people live, and many can.  Many Asians and Hispanics identify more with white America than they do with black America.

Drum's thesis falls apart when seen in this context, in my opinion.

Tuesday, July 09, 2019

Dems Need to Focus

Here's my unhinged conspiracy theory:
The Democrats don't have very much power at the national level and didn't even in 2009 when they controlled the executive and legislative branches, including 60 senators. Obama and company were only allowed to govern because they were centrists. The deep state, the military industrial complex, and other big business has huge behind the scenes influence on maintaining the status quo.
Democrats seemed to feel that they were getting close to power when large segments of the intelligence community turned against Trump, and by extension the Republicans. Unfortunately, the intelligence community has more power than they have skill and got played by somebody. So the relatively powerless Dems have been chasing a chimera, with the predictable result that they are at each other's throats.
Pelosi would be glad to impeach, in my opinion, if there were grounds for impeachment. The fact that the Russia conspiracy was unfounded reasonably gives her pause in using the Mueller report for that line of action. Meanwhile, Barr and company are preparing the counterattack which will coincide with the 2020 election campaign.
Bernie may be unelectable, but I suggest that the Dems take a page from his book and keep the focus on correcting the major problems afflicting our country. Leave the Clinton emails and the Mueller Report, those bits of information doled out by the intelligence agencies, out of it.

Monday, July 01, 2019

Weapons of Mass Destruction Related Program Activities Redux

Remember weapons of mass destruction related program activities?
The Mueller Report is cut from the same cloth:
The Mueller report should have been a knockout blow to anti-Trump forces who invested their hopes in the special counsel. With Robert Mueller’s finding that the Trump campaign did not conspire with Russia to steal the 2016 election and that there was no clear path to indicting the president for obstruction, the enterprise should have shuddered to a stop.
Instead, those who were at first dumbfounded by the special counsel’s report have since found reasons to be buoyed by it – by its grudging tone, its sly assertions resembling proof, and its insistence that not being found guilty should not be confused with innocence. If you had to pick a single sentence that captures the style and substance of Mueller’s tome, you’d find it on page 2: “A statement that the investigation did not establish particular facts does not mean there was no evidence of those facts.”
Democratic members of the House have secured Mueller’s agreement to testify. They will encourage him to offer a sort of informal indictment of the president, something to justify impeachment. Something that can be winkled out of the Mueller report.
All of which calls for a closer reading of the 448-page document. What becomes clear is that the special counsel used a number of rhetorical devices to couch evidence and craft a narrative so that a document that ultimately clears the president can also be read as an indictment.
The first thing to note about the Mueller report is just how contentious it is. It isn’t a set of findings so much as an assertion of what the findings might have been if only there had been more evidence. It is like a closing argument in a criminal case already dismissed for lack of evidence but in which the prosecutor is determined to redeem what he can of his case. Mueller turns to a variety of strategies: hectoring repetition; the use of extraneous detail to add heft to flimsy assertion; and a resort to insinuation and innuendo to prejudice the reader against those who have escaped the dock.
Real Clear Investigations
Insinuendo: Why the Mueller Report Doth Repeat So Much

ADDENDA
weapons of mass destruction related program activities
synonym for, "We've got nothing."

"Already, the Kay Report identified dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations." 
[George W. Bush, 2004 State of the Union]
On February 11, 2003, FBI Director Robert Mueller testified to Congress that "Iraq has moved to the top of my list. As we previously briefed this Committee, Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program poses a clear threat to our national security, a threat that will certainly increase in the event of future military action against Iraq. Baghdad has the capability and, we presume, the will to use biological, chemical, or radiological weapons against US domestic targets"

Saturday, June 29, 2019

David Brooks on Moderates and Democrats

Brooks has a column today entitled Dems, Please Don’t Drive Me Away The dynamic pulling the party leftward.  Here I respond to the points he makes:
According to a Hill-HarrisX survey, only 13 percent of Americans say they would prefer a health insurance system with no private plans. Warren and Sanders pin themselves, and perhaps the Democratic Party, to a 13 percent policy idea. Trump is smiling.
My opinion is that Americans have no great love for their private health insurance.  Insurance is mostly a pain in the ass. Americans just want to get medical services with a minimum amount of expense and hassle.  Our system is more complicated than it needs to be as can be seen by comparison with the systems in other countries such as Canada.
Second, there is the economy. All of the Democrats seem to have decided to run a Trump-style American carnage campaign. The economy is completely broken. It only benefits a tiny sliver. Yet in a CNN poll, 71 percent of Americans say that the economy is very or somewhat good. We’re in the longest recovery in American history and the benefits are finally beginning to flow to those who need them most. Overall wages are rising by 3.5 percent, and wages for those in the lowest pay quartile are rising by well over 4 percent, the highest of all groups.
Democrats have caught the catastrophizing virus that inflicts the Trumpian right. They take a good point — that capitalism needs to be reformed to reduce inequality — and they radicalize it so one gets the impression they want to undermine capitalism altogether.
There is some validity to this point, but it ignores both the unfairness and the unsustainability of the current system.  I disagree with Brooks about the extent of reform needed.
Third, Democrats are wandering into dangerous territory on immigration. They properly trumpet the glories immigrants bring to this country. But the candidates can’t let anybody get to the left of them on this issue. So now you’ve got a lot of candidates who sound operationally open borders. Progressive parties all over the world are getting decimated because they have fallen into this pattern.
I agree with Brooks on this point.
Fourth, Democrats are trying to start a populist v. populist campaign against Trump, which is a fight they cannot win. Democratic populists talk as if the only elite in America is big business, big pharma — the top 1 percent. This allows them to sound populist without actually going after their donor bases — the highly educated affluent people along the coasts.
But the big divide in America is not between the top 1 percent and the bottom 99. It’s between the top 20 percent and the rest. These are the highly educated Americans who are pulling away from everybody else and who have built zoning restrictions and meritocratic barriers to make sure outsiders can’t catch up.
If Democrats run a populist campaign against the business elite, Trump will run a broader populist campaign against the entire educated elite. His populism is more compelling to people who respond to such things. After all, he is actually despised by the American elite, unlike the Democrats.
 A few thoughts on this:
  1. Sanders also seems to be despised by the American elite.  If Brooks thinks that is necessary to win a populist campaign against Trump, then Brooks should consider Sanders.
  2. Brooks claims that "Trump will run a broader populist campaign against the entire educated elite. His populism is more compelling to people who respond to such things".  I don't agree with this and Brooks doesn't provide any supporting arguments or evidence.  While some portion of people unsatisfied with the status quo (populists) are no doubt against the educated elite, others are no doubt against specific policies which have proven ineffective or worse.  
Finally, Democrats aren’t making the most compelling moral case against Donald Trump. They are good at pointing to Trump’s cruelties, especially toward immigrants. They are good at describing the ways he is homophobic and racist. But the rest of the moral case against Trump means hitting him from the right as well as the left.
A decent society rests on a bed of manners, habits, traditions and institutions. Trump is a disrupter. He rips to shreds the codes of politeness, decency, honesty and fidelity, and so renders society a savage world of dog eat dog. Democrats spend very little time making this case because defending tradition, manners and civility sometimes cuts against the modern progressive temper.
I disagree that Democrats spend little time criticizing Trump's lack of civility (and I disagree that that's a criticism from the right).  I do agree that many progressives are angry and ill-mannered.
The debates illustrate the dilemma for moderate Democrats. If they take on progressives they get squashed by the passionate intensity of the left. If they don’t, the party moves so far left that it can’t win in the fall.
Right now we’ve got two parties trying to make moderates homeless.
I suggest looking along the populist-elite dimension in addition to the left-right spectrum that Brooks uses.

Brooks famously opined that the success of the 2003 war in Iraq would lead to a generation of political moderation in the United States -- just the opposite of what actually happened as he acknowledges today.

I want moderates such as Brooks to have a home in the Democratic party.  I encourage Brooks to more seriously consider some of the populist Democratic ideas.  Populism is a natural reaction when the elites make mistakes.

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Democratic Presidential Debates


  1. Warren
  2. Sanders
  3. Buttigieg
  4. Booker
  5. Harris
  6. Gillibrand
  7.  
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  19. Biden
  20. Marianne Williamson
Warren is the favorite for the nomination because she is the most acceptable to both the Hillary and Bernie camps.  Biden bombed, and will soon leave the race.  Sanders was solid, as were the next tier of challengers including Buttigieg, Booker, Harris, and Gillibrand.  

Harris loses points with me for mentioning the party line on Russia. 

Monday, June 24, 2019

Putin and Immigrant Babies

This is the content of a post this morning at a liberal blog I read: 

My only question: If you're not having nightmares over what is happening at the border, why not?

This amazes me.  Of all the problems in the world, this is the one that should be giving me nightmares?  

I can only attribute this perspective to desperation.  A large segment of the Dem/liberal population views issues on the basis of their potential appeal to the mainstream American.  One issue where Trump has caved in the past was that of separating families of would-be-immigrants at the border.  The mainstream media was flooded with images and stories have little children being separated from their parents, and eventually this was too much even for Trump.  So there is encouraging precedent on this issue for the liberals.

I see this as similar to the focus of many liberals on Putin as the bad guy.  The military/intelligence "deep state" is also anti-Putin, for the most part, so liberals see this as a winning position -- uniting liberals and conservatives against Trump.

These attitudes strike me as both inauthentic and counterproductive for Democratic success.  The scale of human suffering of the would-be-immigrants is a drop in the bucket compared to the suffering caused by U.S. policies related to Venezuela and Yemen, or the risk to all human civilization from the renewed Cold War.  Climate change, species extinction, and plastic pollution are all existential threats. 

With regard to Putin, I believe that he is on the right side of the conflicts in Venezuela, Syria, and Iran, just as he was right about Iraq in 2003.  As veteran Russia scholar Stephen F. Cohen says, 
Who Putin Is Not -- Falsely demonizing Russia’s leader has made the new Cold War even more dangerous.
In today’s Russia, apart from varying political liberties, most citizens are freer to live, study, work, write, speak, and travel than they have ever been. (When vocational demonizers like David Kramer allege an “appalling human rights situation in Putin’s Russia,” they should be asked: compared to when in Russian history, or elsewhere in the world today?) ...
Putin has adopted a number of “anti-corruption” policies over the years. How successful they have been is the subject of legitimate debate. As are how much power he has had to rein in fully both Yeltsin’s oligarchs and his own, and how sincere he has been. But branding Putin “a kleptocrat” also lacks context and is little more than barely informed demonizing...
Viewed in human terms, when Putin came to power in 2000, some 75 percent of Russians were living in poverty. Most had lost even modest legacies of the Soviet era—their life savings; medical and other social benefits; real wages; pensions; occupations; and for men, life expectancy, which had fallen well below the age of 60. In only a few years, the “kleptocrat” Putin had mobilized enough wealth to undo and reverse those human catastrophes and put billions of dollars in rainy-day funds that buffered the nation in different hard times ahead. We judge this historic achievement as we might, but it is why many Russians still call Putin “Vladimir the Savior.”
Which brings us to the most sinister allegation against him: Putin, trained as “a KGB thug,” regularly orders the killing of inconvenient journalists and personal enemies, like a “mafia-state boss.” This should be the easiest demonizing axiom to dismiss, because there is no actual evidence, or barely any logic, to support it...  According to the American Committee to Protect Journalists, as of 2012, 77 had been murdered—41 during the Yeltsin years, 36 under Putin. By 2018, the total was 82—41 under Yeltsin, the same under Putin. This strongly suggests that the still–partially corrupt post-Soviet economic system, not Yeltsin or Putin personally, led to the killing of so many journalists after 1991, most of them investigative reporters.
 I strongly recommend the entire column by Cohen.  I think he makes a good case that the demonization of Putin by American liberals is misguided.

My opinion is that the U.S., not Russia, is the biggest threat to global peace.  Moreover, as demonstrated in the 2003 Iraq War, this is often a bipartisan failure of American politics.  Rather than confront our own deep state, many liberals find it expedient to blame an insidious foreign power.

Similarly, the U.S. has been an ineffective global leader in responding to problems such as global warming, pollution, financial inequality, and human rights.  Our support for international institutions and initiatives to deal with these problems has been inconsistent at best.  This is the real abomination of the Trump presidency -- pushing American exceptionalism at the expense of authentic global problem solving.  

National exceptionalism is inherent to our system of democratic nation states.  It's not surprising that both Republicans and Democrats often favor national, as opposed to human, rights.  The attention being given to immigrant detainees in the U.S. is admirable in this respect.  Each human life deserves respect -- the millions of suffering Venezuelans and Yemenis as much as the thousands of detained would-be immigrants; the victims of bipartisan policies as much as the victims of partisan policies.

The immigration issue is founded on the failure of U.S. sponsored states in Central America.  Hillary Clinton, for example, intervened as Secretary of State in support of a military coup in Honduras:
In 2009, when a military coup deposed President Manuel Zelaya at the insistence of the country's Supreme Court, then-Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton supported the government that was installed by the coup. While Clinton was running for president, she argued, especially to Democracy Now's Juan Gonzalez, that the coup was at least nominally constitutional, and that supporting the deposing of Zelaya was the least-bad option. That remains debatable, but what does not remain debatable is that Honduras subsequently descended into the present chaos.
I support the Democrats as the more reasonable of our two major political parties.  I want the Democrats to focus on the real problems and avoid the cheap shots at Putin and at Trump for detaining would-be-immigrants.  These are distractions from serious problems, and will ultimately backfire, in my opinion. 

We have already witnessed the Democrats expending extreme amounts of energy in supporting the Mueller investigation and, now impeachment, on the basis of that investigation.  Since this is not going anywhere, the turn to immigrant rights is seen as a shortcut to getting rid of the despised Republican president.  But this risks playing into Trump's hands.  Illegal immigration is not a politically winning position.  Protecting minority rights is important, but works best when accompanied by concern for what benefits the majority.  That, after all, is the essence of democracy.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Solutions

In a previous post, I commented on  a column by David Brooks entitled It's Not the Collusion, It's the Corruption, What the Mueller report says about our world.  Brooks concludes that the society is being attacked by nihilism, getting people to believe the system is rigged leading to a power vacuum where the unscrupulous can get away with various bad deeds.
And today, across society, two things are happening: Referees are being undermined, and many are abandoning their own impartiality. (Think of the Wall Street regulators, the Supreme Court, the Senate committee chairmen, even many of us in the blessed media.)
Brooks offers no solutions in that column, but I know from reading him in the past that he is favor of more civility in public discourse, as well as bi-partisan dialog.  I agree with him wholeheartedly on these points.

The mainstream media can help get the country moving back in the right direction by more comprehensively and objectively covering issues involving "intelligence".  As I noted here, the mainstream media, including especially our newspapers of record (the NY Times and Washington Post), are not covering important facts and opinions regarding some of the most important issues facing our country.  Instead, the mainstream media is feeding us selective facts according to our supposed national interests as determined by the defense/intelligence establishment.

Here's an article from May 2017 that discusses the NY Times lack of coverage of various non-establishment perspectives:  Six Ways the New York Times Could Genuinely Make Its Op-Ed Page More Representative of America.  The article notes that the paper of record doesn't employ a single columnist who supports Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump.

With regard to the Washington Post, it ran 16 negative stories on Bernie Sanders in 16 hours leading up to a crucial Democratic presidential primary debate.  In February 2019, in the space of 48 hours after Sanders declared his candidacy for the presidency, the Post churned out four negative pieces.

So my take is that the mainstream media bears some responsibility for the Trump nightmare.  By supporting the establishment line and not giving voice to legitimate points of view in favor of change, they opened the door for legitimate populist distrust of status quo institutions.  Since Trump came to power, they have compounded the problem by taking a partisan line unsupported by the evidence with regard to investigation of conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russians.  The mainstream media has thus given legitimacy to the nihilistic operations of Trump and his contingent.

Until such time as the mainstream media improves in this respect, I suggest that the solution is to seek the truth more independently, and to support populist candidates with a greater respect for the truth.  Support alternative media.  Withdraw support from the mainstream media.

Why do people read the NY Times?  Are they aware of alternatives?  Personally, I read the Times on occasion and watch NBC News nightly because these media operations have big budgets and standards, so they are able to provide relevant information and screen out a lot of not so credible stuff.  On the other hand, I find that there are many small media outlets on the Internet that cover the gaps and misinformation emanating from outlets such as the Times and NBC.  But it takes time and a certain comfort level with the Internet to do this, and many people apparently do not consider this a high priority.  Many would rather protest what the mainstream media tells us to protest (Trump), than to protest the mainstream media itself.  Obviously there's a need for and room for both.  But we've reached the point where the media (e.g. David Brooks) is telling us the media is the problem.  With a little more self-awareness, people like Brooks would probably be fired as have so many dissenting journalists.

So it's up to us to speak out against the mainstream media bias in favor of the status quo.  Of special urgency is the need to question the use of military/intelligence sources as sources of truth with regard to foreign affairs.  Let's hear what Tulsi Gabbard has to say and evaluate it fairly. 

It is natural that the establishment media will support the establishment economic and military/intelligence leaders.   Having been under attack for decades by the likes of Fox News and other right wing populists, we now see the establishment media responding in kind by eschewing objective reporting in favor of blatant partisanship.  The first step in restoring civil national discourse is to turn this around and deal with Fox News, Bernie Sanders, and Tulsi Gabbard in a more objective fashion.  There is no doubt a time for partisan warfare, but that should be after all other options have been exhausted. 

We are better off pulling together as a nation to the extent possible, and the principles of Getting to Yes can be useful in this regard: 

  1. Separate the People from the Problem:  Yes, Trump is a pathological liar.  That doesn't mean that intelligence services are giving us the unvarnished truth with regard to conspiracy with Russia.  
  2. Focus on Interests, not Positions:  Yes, we are interested in equal application of the law.  But, this is a pervasive problem in the U.S. as opposed to an isolated case of Trump obstructing justice.  Perhaps we should consider more seriously the legitimate issues raised by populists on both the left and the right.
  3. Invent Options for Mutual Gain:  Instead of digging into a renewed Cold War, perhaps we should be more open to working with Putin and Russia, for example.
  4. Insist on Using Objective Criteria in Decision Making:  The upcoming election provides a good opportunity for us to hold leaders accountable by electing better leaders.  The president is already accountable to the people as he must face reelection.  The intelligence agencies cannot always be relied upon to be objective as they are not always accountable for their actions and operate in secrecy.

Focus on the goal of a free and open society where majority rules, and minority rights are protected.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Our Press Sucks

I've become convinced that the newspapers of record in the U.S. are propaganda outlets for elements of the government and intelligence slash military services.  The lack of coverage on a number of recent new stories exemplifies this:

The mainstream media occasionally hints that they know better.  The NY Times eventually confirmed the alternative press finding regarding the Venezuelan aid truck fire (first bullet point above), although it was mostly ignored subsequently.  One article above is from a mainstream newspaper, The Guardian.  With regard to one of supposedly key sections of the Mueller report, Taibbi points out that the NY Times published an in-depth analysis consistent with the exposé in The Hill.  However, these are the exceptions.

I have to agree with Taibbi:  
MSNBC burned up countless hours obsessing over the Manafort-Kilimnik relationship. You can find the tale discussed ad nauseum here, here, here, here, and in many other places, with Kilimnik routinely described on air as a “Russian asset” with “ties to Russian intelligence,” who even bragged that he learned his English from Russian spies.
CNN has likewise done a gazillion reports on the guy: see here, here, here, here, and here. Some reports said Manafort’s conduct “hints” at collusion, while Chris Cilizza said his meetings with a “Russian-linked operative” were a “very big deal.” Bloviator-in-chief Jake Tapper wondered if this story was “Game, Set, Match” for the collusion case. Anytime a Democrat spoke about how “stunning” and “damning” was the news that Manafort gave Kilimnik poll numbers, reporters repeated those assertions in a snap.

I could go up and down the line with the Times,the Washington Post, and other print outlets. Every major news organization that covered Russiagate has covered the hell out of this part of the story. But the instant there’s a suggestion there’s another angle: crickets
Russiagate is fast becoming a post-journalistic news phenomenon. We live in an information landscape so bifurcated, media companies don’t cover news, because they can stick with narratives. Kilimnik being a regular State Department informant crosses the MSNBC-approved line that he’s a Russian cutout who tried to leverage Donald Trump’s campaign manager. So it literally has no news value to many companies, even if it’s clearly a newsworthy item according to traditional measure.
Incidentally, Solomon’s report being true wouldn’t necessarily exonerate either Kilimnik or Manafort. It may just mean a complication of the picture, along with uncomfortable questions for Robert Muller and embassy officials who dealt with Kilimnik. That’s what’s so maddening. We’ve gotten to the point where news editors and producers are more like film continuity editors — worried about maintaining literary consistency in coverage — than addressing newsworthy developments that might move us into gray areas.

Our press sucks. There are third-world dictatorships where newspapers try harder than they do here. We used to at least pretend to cover the bases. Now, we’re a joke.

Worldview

 I haven't been posting much here of late because I prefer writing in Google Docs. I've been linking most of my great thoughts into ...