Saturday, July 11, 2020

Big Picture

Context

I find myself unable to discuss politics with friends and relatives.  The issues have become too emotionally charged and polarized.  In situations like this, it can help to step back and view culture from afar.  I will be thinking out loud here -- trying to get a better handle on how to be constructive in my relationships with friends, family, church, and community.

Human nature may be a good starting point.  Perhaps we can all agree that humans have tribal tendencies, and that these tribes tend to fight with one another.  Secondly, empires come and go as different ethnic groups dominate and try to integrate other ethnic groups into the ruling system.  The United States is currently the world's preeminent superpower, and leader of the preeminent global economic and political systems. 
Despite recently closing hundreds of bases in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States still maintains nearly 800 military bases in more than 70 countries and territories abroad—from giant “Little Americas” to small radar facilities. Britain, France and Russia, by contrast, have about 30 foreign bases combined.  [Politico 2015]
In terms of military expenditures, the United States is far and away the leader, spending almost 3 times as much as China and 7 times as much as frequently cited rival Russia.  No corner of the world is free from our economic system and accompanying rules.

Human culture can be brutal.  While civilization has tended to make life more peaceful and comfortable for those cultures most closely associated with the empire, the situation is different for cultures on the margins.  Thus, life is dangerous and difficult for many in the Middle East, N. Korea, Africa, and the black slums of the Americas.  Afghanistan, for example, as a fringe area, has been subject to decades of civil war.  Countries such as N Korea and Venezuela that have rebelled against the dominant empire(s), suffer extreme poverty and lack of freedom.  Inner city Detroit has been largely abandoned and suffers high rates of violent crime. 

At the other end of the power spectrum, the centers of power within an empire such as that of the U.S. are prone to uncivilized power struggles.  The rules of democracy or whatever ethos prevails will often be overpowered by that of the military, secret services, and economic elites.  This is an unpleasant fact of human nature and human culture.  We hope that civilization is progressing along an arc of moral justice, as Martin Luther King and Obama might say, but the progress is not automatic nor is it steady.

I was born into the American empire at its apex.  In 1952, the U.S. had recently led the "free world" to victory over Germany and Japan.  Though the Cold War with the Soviet Union was well underway, and China had slipped from the empire's grasp, the U.S. was the preeminent economic and military power.  America's English language base enabled us to inherit the British empire's supremacy where the sun never set, as the old saying goes.  Thus, our cultural domination flowed conveniently on top of our economic and military supremacy, as English became the global lingua franca and our universities attracted the best prospects from around the world.

As I complete my 7th decade, I reflect on what a privilege it has been to be born at this place and time, and wonder what I can do to help my descendants and future generations.  As my father often said in moments of humorous philosophy, Whither capitalism?  I have always been more of a socialist myself,  and outside of the dominant ethos in that regard.  For most of my life, I've been warning that our capitalist ways are unsustainable.  Generally, I've been a soldier in the Democratic tribe in that regard.

Recently, however, I've become estranged from the Democrats, at precisely the same time that my daughter has earned a place at the table with the Democratic leadership.  This is ironic, if not totally surprising.  There is generally a tension between trying to make the world a better place by engaging in party politics (adversarial), and trying to make the world a better place by looking out for the common good regardless of political affiliation.  Another fundamental tension is between political constituency (e.g. America) and the larger grouping of humanity (e.g. everyone on the planet).  I'm a humanist (my religion) and there will always be tension between the political interests of Americans, and the human interests of the planet as a whole.

Thus, I believe that the human condition is fraught with tensions regarding governance, and that my personal situation is no exception.  With this sober context, let's look at some current events that are often too controversial to discuss constructively.
  • Foreign affairs
  • Culture wars in the United States
  • Socialist vs (neo)liberal economic systems
Foreign Affairs

It is ironic that, despite being born when American power was at its apex, I've witnessed a lifelong string of American defeats with regard to foreign affairs:
  1. Vietnam War
  2. Iranian Revolution
  3. Iraq War
  4. Syrian War
  5. Afghanistan War
Balancing these defeats, America won the biggest war of my lifetime -- the Cold War with the Soviet Union.  However, we are now in a renewed Cold War with Russia, and increasingly also with China.  This article about the American experience in Afghanistan provides a stark account of American failure -- How the CIA Made Afghanistan Safe for the Opium Trade.  This history of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan was written over 20 years ago.  Remarkably, our involvement in Afghanistan has only grown more disastrous since then, as we have now been openly at war there for 19 years and have increasingly been on the losing end.  

In Afghanistan, under the guise of fighting communism, the U.S. instigated 40 years of civil war by providing weapons to Afghani and Pakistani drug lords.  Much of the heroin found its way to the United States, exacerbating problems with our own underclass. Eventually, Islamic fundamentalism arose as a reaction to the chaos enveloping the region, turning much of our national attention to fighting more wars in the Middle East as well as terrorism around the world.  We did achieve our immediate objective going back to 1979, which was to get the Soviets to withdraw from Afghanistan.  But we brought untold suffering to the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan, including drug addiction and governmental  corruption.

Fast forward to the present time and anonymous intelligence officials are stoking indignation among Democrats and their media allies such as the New York Times, that Russia is paying the Taliban to fight the U.S.  After all this time, more than 40 years since the U.S. first started supplying weapons to the anti-Soviet drug lords in Afghanistan, we are still battling supposed enemy forces in the same fringes of the empire.  Even Colin Powell has admitted that (with regard to the recent Russia-Taliban reports):
Our military commanders did not think that it was as serious a problem as the newspapers were reporting & television was reporting... It got almost hysterical.
As with Iran, Vietnam, and Iraq, the U.S. moves to buttress the empire have backfired.  Initial successes have been followed by devastating defeats in all these places.  Only in Vietnam, where we eventually admitted defeat and went home, has the situation improved.  Meanwhile, domestically, both political parties continue to support the same people and policies which have proven so disastrous over my lifetime.  People who point this out, such as myself, are thought to be traitors or dupes by a substantial segment of the elite commentariat.

Culture Wars

The failures abroad have turned those responsible to the domestic arena.  If you can't beat Russia in Ukraine, perhaps the problem is a lack of unity in domestic support of the empire.  As in the days of the Cold War, Russia is the most common bogeyman, but China and fundamentalist Islam are also common targets.  
 
Paralleling the various wars of my lifetime, there have been culture wars here at home.  Various ethnic and demographic groups are trying to better their position within society.  As with foreign affairs, our current state is one of seeming agreement by the elites on what the problems are and how to solve them.  When the demagogue Trump won the presidential election in 2016, the elites of both the left and right fought back by blaming Russia and racism.  The name calling and acrimony has descended to levels reminiscent of the Vietnam War / Civil Rights era of the 1960s.  But that comparison is unkind to the 1960s, where the disastrous war was eventually ended due to popular protest, and civil rights were protected more and more over time.

The current situation is more reminiscent of the Salem Witch Trials.  The seeming victor in the culture wars is cancel culture.  I'm guessing this has reached its apex, kind of like the American empire in 1953 when the CIA overthrew the socialist Mossadegh in Iran.  The seeming victories will turn out to be illusory as time goes by.  Attacking people on the basis of their genetic/physical identity is not a recipe for success -- political or otherwise.  And this is true especially in an empire, such as the United States.  

The appeal of the empire is peace and prosperity for increasing numbers of citizens.  Turmoil and witch hunts do not have widespread or lasting appeal, as the Democrats will probably learn when the next batch of polls come out.  However, the current polarization has gone too far for the Dems to turn back.  Tied as they are to the power centers of the empire (media, military, intelligence, economic), the Dems are a formidable monster.  The Republicans, on the other hand, have had their bluff called.  The formidable monsters of previous decades in my life, the Republicans are a thrashing beast of incoherence -- superficially frightening but no longer credible.  Most of the powerful people have deserted the Republican ship.

So the Democratic rage will burn out, while the Republican party tries to reconfigure itself as something credible.  The fraying of the empire will continue as internal rage deflects attention from real problem solving.

Socialist vs (neo)liberal economic systems

The socialist movement represented by Bernie Sanders has been set back.  The visible movement now is based on identity politics, rather than class politics.  Right wingers lump culture warriors and socialists together, apparently having failed to grasp the growing divide.  As the culture war fizzles, the movement will be increasingly discredited by a reinvigorated "center", and socialism will be downplayed as well.

Yet the problems the socialists are trying to solve are real problems that will not go away:
  • The medical finance system is groaning under the weight of unnecessary complexity.
  • Finance in general is experiencing massive recurring bubbles.
  • Global warming is real and the future of life on the planet is in jeopardy.
  • Empire overreach is real and debilitating -- draining resources away from the productive economy and inserting harmful vested interests into the domestic political scene.
The label socialist is problematic, having been associated with godless communism in the public ethos for generations.  However, this could change rapidly.  Alternatively, a new label could catch on.  Eventually we will need to face our problems.

Zooming Back Out

Culture war issues are micro issues -- real and intensely personal, but more about minority rights than majority interests.  Foreign affairs are remote by definition.  Such tensions beset all empires, and all empires eventually decay.  The era of U.S. preeminence is rapidly decaying, with the process accelerating in recent years.  This is natural and survivable.  On a personal or tribal level, it's best to maintain a certain distance from the empire's political upheavals.  From a humanist perspective, it's best to encourage whichever faction is looking at the big picture with the broadest level of human compassion.

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