Wednesday, May 25, 2022

War as Arbiter of Truth, Peaceful Coexistence as Goal

The USA has a long record of profound mistakes for which our leaders have not been held accountable.  Foremost among these is the 2003 Iraq War, along with the related wars in Afghanistan and Syria.  The financial crisis of 2008 is next up.  The xenophobic Russiagate witch hunt and ensuing bipartisan demonization of "Putin" is the latest example.

Reading news of the current Russo-Ukraine war, I find totally opposite sets of facts and opinions.  In the mainstream Western media, "Putin" blundered and is losing the war badly.  He planned to take over the whole of Ukraine quickly and easily and was caught unprepared by the ferocious Ukrainian defense and the united stand of the West against him.  In the USA, Republicans and Democrats are united in determination to defeat "Putin", and our allies are similarly united and determined.

My understanding is exactly the opposite:

  • Russia is not "Putin".
  • Russia's declared objectives were 3-fold, and great progress has been made in each::
    • Liberation of Donbass from the anti-Russian Ukrainian government.
    • Defeat of Nazi elements in Ukraine.
    • Demilitarization of Ukraine.
  • The West misunderstood Russia's intentions.  Russia is seen by the West to have failed, yet this is because the West has misrepresented and/or misunderstood Russia's objectives.  
  • The West has failed in its own declared intentions -- to wreck the Russian economy and weaken the Putin Administration. 
    • The ruble has strengthened in value as Russia's energy exports have soared in value.  
    • China has maintained military ties with Russia and failed to join in sanctioning Russia.
    • Other non-aligned nations have failed to join in anti-Russian sanctions.
    • Putin's popularity within Russia is very high.
  • The West is floundering:
    • Biden and other Western leaders are unpopular.
    • Sanctions are backfiring and harming Western economies.
    • The unified and determined opposition to "Putin" is beginning to crack.
  • Militarily, Russia is making steady progress in achieving their objectives.
    • Thousands of neo-Nazis of the Azov Battalion were killed and captured in Russia's takeover of Mariupol.
    • Luhansk oblast has been almost completely taken by the Russians.
    • Russians are advancing in the Donetsk oblast.
    • The Russians have taken Kherson oblast and most of Zaporizhzhia oblast, thus connecting Crimea with Donbass under Russian control.
    • Ukraine's best forces are being destroyed on the Donbass front, and will likely be unable to retreat successfully.
    • Russia is destroying the infrastructure that Ukraine needs to fight a war, including facilities to house and transport weapons from NATO.
The Western narrative is failing spectacularly, in my view.  The corruption of the media in conjunction with the military industrial complex has reached absurd levels.  Because US elites have been immune from accountability for past blunders (Iraq 2003, 2008 financial crisis, Afghanistan, Russiagate), these elites have become extremely careless.  Thus, the MSM believes it can report as fact that "Putin" is losing badly. War may be the ultimate arbiter of truth in this matter.

A recent post by Steve Waldman -- No Peace, No Justice -- looks beyond the current battles to more important outcomes:
However our controversies shake out, we will all have to live together. If you essentialize partisans on the other side of your disputes as implacable, evil, you leave no hope whatsoever for justice or for peace. In a society that we share, unless you mean to expel or incarcerate or kill large groups of people (in which case you are neither for peace nor for justice), your politics must create space for redemption, cooptation, reconciliation. If your politics does not envision and work towards a decent outcome for your “enemies” as well as your allies, the cause you serve is not just.

War may be the ultimate arbiter of some truths, but peaceful coexistence should be the ultimate goal.  Truth should be a means to an end.  This war may be necessary for the West to recognize the truth and adapt to a more coherent system of international rules.  But the more coherent system of international rules is the real prize.

 

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