Thursday, July 29, 2021

A Dispassionate Look at Ivermectin and Covid

A Dispassionate Look at Ivermectin and Covid

Introduction

I tried to discuss the issue of ivermectin as a prophylaxis and/or treatment for covid in two aborted blog posts.  The first looked at the issue from the point of view of our (US) national ethos and the state of discourse.  The second looked at the issue in terms of degenerative politics and crimes against humanity.  I aborted these attempts as secondary to the issue of whether ivermectin is actually effective as a prophylaxis and/or treatment for COVID.


In search of more objective information regarding the efficacy of ivermectin in relation to COVID, I watched a video with this orientation -- Ivermectin, For and Against, with Tess Lawrie, Graham Walker & Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz.  I watched the full video, featuring two opponents of ivermectin and one supporter, and a moderator/producer who was very much neutral.  Then I read through the comments -- there were > 1000 and I can't say that I read them all, but I did spend a couple of hours reading the comments and considering the facts.  As is common these days, the comments were filled with ad hominem attacks and red herrings, but I gradually came to better understand the underlying facts and issues.

Facts 

  • There have been at least 60 studies about the effectiveness of ivermectin with regard to COVID.  

    • 39 of these have been peer-reviewed

    • 30 of these have been randomized controlled trials

    • All tolled, the trials have involved 574 scientists and 21,814 patients.

    • 64% and 96% lower mortality is observed for early treatment and prophylaxis (RR 0.36 [0.15-0.85] and 0.04 [0.00-0.59]). Statistically significant improvements are seen for mortality, hospitalization, cases, and viral clearance.

    • The probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as the 60 studies to date is estimated to be 1 in 193 billion.

  • There are no serious concerns over the safety of ivermectin.

  • Ivermectin is cheap and production could be mass produced to give to every person in the world without much difficulty.

  • Nobody is arguing that ivermectin has been proven ineffective, or even that it doesn't work.  The arguments against ivermectin allege that it has not been proven effective.  The specific arguments range from misgivings about specific studies, to generalizations that whole categories of study are unreliable.  

  • The main argument against promoting ivermectin to as a prophylaxis or treatment covid is that it will discourage people from getting a vaccine.  To this end, the medical establishment has clamped down so that doctors are subject to punishment if they prescribe ivermection.  Discussion of ivermectin has been discouraged and even expressly prohibited on some major media platforms.

  • There are few (no?) alternatives to ivermectin recommended by the medical profession in the early treatment of covid.  Likewise, there are few alternatives promoted for treatment of long haul covid.


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