This I Believe

Introduction

In recent years, and more frequently since I retired in spring 2018, I've pondered and written down some of the things I believe to be true that are not common knowledge. This is somewhat similar to, but more controversial than, the essays you will find from the National Public Radio show This I Believe.

My core belief system is based on the idea that biological and cultural evolution are shaped and directed by win-win interactions, as expressed in the book Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright.  This leads to my valuing Getting to Yes, a guide to interacting with others.   

This essay goes beyond these core beliefs and values to look at specific theories and facts -- 

1. What do I know? (believe to be true, though I could be wrong)
2. What don't I know?

I expect the list to change over time.

An overriding lesson I have learned is to look at controversial issues using my own common sense.  In case after case, the conventional wisdom defies common sense.  Once common sense is applied, then the pieces fit together reasonably.  Common sense consists of considering both sides of an issue, along with the motives involved.  With respect to the cases below, one side of the issue has won the day with regard to the mainstream media and the conventional wisdom.  Thus, I am questioning "the facts" and recent history as widely accepted across the U.S. global empire.

Common sense leads me to consider the reason why only one side of some issues is considered legitimate.  Most people do not have the time to dwell extensively on such matters.  It is convenient to accept a well established narrative and move on.  I have done that most of my life, but in retirement and with access to the Internet have had time and capability of looking at both sides of confusing episodes.  I learned that it is valuable to weigh circumstantial evidence in forming an accurate mental model of the world.  While there may be no proof for the things "I know" which are listed below, consideration of the likelihood (Bayesian probability) of certain matters based upon circumstantial evidence leads to a more robust mental model.

Government and Empire

The bottom line is that the U.S. empire is overextended, yet it is politically difficult to cut back.  For example, political support for Israel makes it difficult to cut back in the Middle East.  Support for the U.S. led empire by many Ukrainians, Afghans, east Asians, and Latin Americans makes it difficult to cut back in these areas.  Political control of the empire, though centered in Washington DC, is subject to immense pressure from many places around the world.  Intelligence agencies, which are above the law to a large degree and insulated from political pressures, have the job of protecting the empire.  Buttressing the empire around the world is proving difficult, especially when political direction is uncertain.  Thus, the task of buttressing the empire has evolved into solidifying the political direction.  Whether or not this is a good thing for people such as myself is secondary, in this essay, to ascertaining the truth of selected items of conventional wisdom.  Once we have a better handle on the facts, then we can better use the democratic process to find a constructive way forward.

Russiagate

The widely reported Russia-Trump conspiracy is perhaps the most significant event of my adult life in shaping my current worldview, as expressed in this essay.  My view is that this was a conspiracy theory unsupported by facts, yet widely believed by Democrats and widely reported as fact in the mainstream media.  Over the last 4 years, I've written extensively about why I feel this way and discussed this with Democratic friends, family, and strangers on the Internet.  I believe very strongly that the Democratic / intelligence community / mainstream narrative of Trump - Russia collusion has been disproven yet not acknowledged by Democrats.  Moreover, the narrative of Russian interference in the 2016 election seems similarly unfounded, yet to question said interference is considered grounds for censorship and almost treasonous.  

My certainty on this matter is such that I've lost faith in the government and mainstream media to accurately report the truth in many other matters. A lifetime of belief in American institutions has been thoroughly eroded. Matters that I previously saw as unknowable, such as the John Kennedy assassination, now seem to clearly fit a pattern that has lasted throughout my lifetime.

UPDATE 1/21/2022: Matt Taibbi reporting clarifies origin of FBI Trump-Russia investigation -- It was  Steele after all (not Mifsud / Papadopolous).

January 6

Added 1/3/2022:  It's now clear to me what happened with regard to the riot on January 6.  I am indebted to Darren Beattie of Revolver News for providing a coherent explanation with a ton of supporting evidence including video from the capitol area on January 6 and in the days leading up to the riot.  Informants and operatives connected to the FBI removed the barriers around the capitol and herded people leaving a Trump rally into the capitol building.  This was captured on video and the leaders have been disappeared from public view, including one who was on the FBI most-wanted list until his identity was revealed by Beattie.  The people were unarmed and had no intention of overthrowing the government, despite widespread news reports to the contrary.  There may have been other legal, political, and military intrigues about, but the riot was designed to discredit these, not implement them.  

Ukrainegate / Impeachment

I know that the "whistleblower" was a CIA insider and firmly in the Biden camp.  This has not been reported by the mainstream media but is common knowledge elsewhere.  I know that Biden did an explicit quid pro quo as VP and lead Obama Administration official on Ukraine policy.  The video of this has been widely seen and discussed outside of the mainstream media, which has not denied its validity.  The mainstream media has made blanket assertions that Biden did nothing wrong, which may be true in the sense that his actions are in line with the preferences of "the empire" -- i.e. the intelligence agencies and careerists in the State Department.  

Similar to Russiagate, the impeachment on the basis of opposition to Trump by professionals in the intelligence community was set in motion right at the beginning of the Trump Administration. 

Syrian Chemical Weapons

I know that the U.S. and Britain have subverted international institutions such as the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.  They lied about Assad using chemical weapons in Syria, then covered up the whistleblowers who leaked the truth.

UPDATE 12/16/2021:  A lot more evidence has come in supporting this.  

Skripal / Navalny

I know that the so called novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal is a fabrication of the U.S. and British intelligence services.  This is obvious nonsense, yet is accepted uncritically by the mainstream media.  The Navalny incident is in the same vein.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17

In reading about this on Wikipedia, there seems to be overwhelming evidence that pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region accidentally shot down this passenger airplane. Apparently, Netherlands and Australia have concluded that Russian rebels are responsible. However, given the amount of Cold War lying I've witnesses in this time period, I don't trust Wikipedia or the mainstream press or U.S. allied governments in matters of this nature.  So I'll have to put this one in "don't know".  

Here is a documentary short film presenting the pro-Russian side: SUNDAY SCREENING: ‘MH17: Call for Justice’ (2019).  See also The Official and Implausible MH-17 Scenario.

Assassinations in USA

Here I am referring to the assassinations of JFK (1963), MLK (1968), and RFK (1968).  

JFK Assassination

I am now prepared to say that I know that U.S. intelligence agencies were involved in the JFK assassination.  This comes 57 years after the event, including my entire adult lifetime.  Previously I have considered the truth behind this assassination to be unknowable.  I am now prepared to declare US intelligence agency involvement as something that is knowable, even if the precise details are hidden.

It has always strained my credulity to believe that Oswald acted alone.  Yet, there have been numerous investigations and seemingly no concrete evidence to prove that he was part of a conspiracy.  I've had a Eureka moment, not through any one astounding revelation, but rather in the form of a straw that breaks the camel's back.  I recently read an account of the JFK assassination which claims that Oswald was a U.S. intelligence agent.  "Of course he was", I thought to myself.  I was only able to make sense of this after I had learned not to trust the mainstream media.

• He was a U.S. marine.  How many communist Marines have you ever encountered or even heard of?  What are the chances that the Marine Corps would permit an openly avowed communist to serve in its ranks? While Oswald was serving in the Marine Corps, he became fluent in the Russian language. How is that possible?
• We know the CIA and other U.S. intelligence services recruit agents, and that it is a difficult job with high risk.  Oswald seems like an obvious candidate:  
  "he was placed in juvenile detention at the age of seven for truancy, during which time he was assessed by a psychiatrist as "emotionally disturbed", due to a lack of a normal family life. After attending 22 schools in his youth, he quit repeatedly, and finally when he was 17, to join the Marines. Oswald was honorably released from active duty in the Marine Corps into the reserve and defected to the Soviet Union in October 1959. He lived in Minsk until June 1962... After leaving the Marine Corps, Oswald traveled to the Soviet Union, walked into the U.S. embassy, renounced his citizenship, and stated that he intended to give any secrets he learned while serving in the military to the Soviet Union. Later, when he stated his desire to return to the United States, with a wife with family connections to Soviet intelligence, Oswald was given the red-carpet treatment on his return... Later, when Oswald ended up in Dallas, his friends were right-wingers, not left-wingers. He even got job at a photographic facility that developed top-secret photographs for the U.S. government. How is that possible? Later, when he ended up in New Orleans, he got hired by a private company that was owned by a fierce anti-communist right-winger"
• Oswald was murdered after he shot Kennedy by a sketchy figure with ties to organized crime.
• The CIA was working with organized crime around that time in attempting to assassinate Fidel Castro.
• The CIA at that era was engaging in political assassinations in countries around the world:
  "Following World War II, the United States became secretly engaged in a practice of international political assassinations and attempts on foreign leaders. For a considerable period of time, the U.S. Government officials vehemently denied any knowledge of this program since it would be against the United Nations Charter... In 1975, the U.S. Senate convened the Senate Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations with Res (D-Idaho). The Church Committee uncovered that CIA and other governmental agencies employed a so-called tactic of "plausible deniability" during decision-making related to assassinations. CIA subordinates were deliberately shielding the higher-ranking officials from any responsibility by withholding the full amount of information about planned assassinations."
• "From the start, the Warren Commission proceedings were shrouded in “national-security” state secrecy, including a top-secret meeting of the commissioners to discuss information they had received that Oswald was an intelligence agent. When Warren was asked if the American people would be able to see all the evidence, Warren responded yes, but not in your lifetime.  Does that make any sense? If the assassination was, in fact, committed by some lone nut, then what would “national security” and state secrecy have to do with it? ... In April 2018, President Trump issued an order to the National Archives to continue keeping thousands of CIA records relating to the John Kennedy assassination secret from the American people."
• "Lyndon Johnson, the CIA, and the JCS had the perfect excuse to shut down the investigation and pin the crime only on Oswald: If they instead retaliated, it would be all-out nuclear war... when Dallas District Attorney Henry Wade alleged from the start that Oswald was part of a communist conspiracy, Johnson told him to shut it down for fear that Wade might inadvertently start World War III."  
• The conventional wisdom, which is obviously contradictory, is thus:
  • Oswald acted entirely alone (the finding of the Warren Commission)
  • Details must be kept secret because they would reveal Russian involvement, and thus risk nuclear war.

I don't know why people in the U.S. national-security business assassinated Kennedy.  I've just picked up an Audible book on this topic, which is very favorably and convincingly reviewed.  It appears that there was a consensus that he was soft on national security from a cold war perspective.

UPDATE 12/16/2021:  My belief that JFK was assassinated by Deep State has been reinforced since this was initially written.

RFK and MLK Assassinations

I don't know if there were conspiracies regarding the assassinations in 1968 of Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr.  It seems possible given the probable culprits in the JFK assassination and the opposition of both RFK and MLK to the Vietnam War.  I would have to do the hard work of researching outside of the mainstream media, and revisiting widely accepted "facts" to come to a definitive conclusion.

UPDATE 7/9/2021: I've recently "read" (Audible) books about these 2 assassinations and it seems likely that both were CIA/FBI directed conspiracies.  

January 6, 2021 ("insurrection")

UPDATE 10/25/2021:  The capitol riot was an FBI-led operation.  The documentation / explanation here is convincing: Meet Ray Epps: The Fed-Protected Provocateur Who Appears To Have Led The Very First 1/6 Attack On The U.S. Capitol

The Future

Obviously, I don't know what will happen in the future, but I'm hoping it will be helpful to give some thought to the future in light of what I've learned.  

As with perhaps most governments in the history of the world, the U.S. government is ruled by force more than by democratically elected leaders.  At the national level, at least, the politicians are subservient to the "security" professionals.  The national mythology concerning civilian control may be losing sway, yielding chaos such as we have seen with the Trump presidency. 

The most likely way forward, in my opinion, is for more blatant rule by force.  The Democrats have already dropped the veil which previously disguised there reliance upon the security establishment for power.  The next logical step would be for a leader to step forward who recognizes this and declares it necessary for national stability.  As much as we dislike the Chinese and Russian models, we secretly realize that they are more successful.  

The next U.S. political strongman could come from either the Democratic or Republican parties.  Republican leaders have long given only weak lip service in support of democracy.  Democrats effectively went the same way in 2016, and the incoming Biden Administration has the support of the military-industrial-intelligence-media complex.  Such a solid front could enable a faction to take control of the country, and lead to the breakup of the Republicans.  The main destabilizing factor would then be internal to the Democratic party with competing vested interests such as between the military and business.

Culture

Media

As documented above in what I know about government and empire in the contemporary United States, the mainstream media is extremely unreliable when it comes to reporting facts in any way related to "national security", which includes politics on the national level.  The Internet, however, has made it much easier to uncover the truth.  Thus, there is already considerable pressure to censor the many independent outlets which report facts and opinions contrary to establishment narrative.

Other powerful nations such as China and Russia censor the press, including the Internet, and it is not clear if the U.S. can continue to be exceptional in this regard.  

In sum, I distrust the mainstream media and trust various alternative media journalists such as Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, Bret Weinstein, Heather Heying, Glenn Loury, John McWhorter, and Robert Wright.

Economics

In the decade since I first learned about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), it's become more widely accepted as an accurate description of how national monetary systems work.  Conventional economics has been exposed as superstitious dogma similar to Medieval Age Christianity.  I know that MMT accurately describes the monetary economy.

I don't know what the best economic system is.  I lean toward socialism, as it has worked well, in combination with capitalism, in Nordic and other European countries.  These mixed economies tend to have the best track record.  But the pressures of human technological development on the environment seem unsustainable and lead me to believe that capitalism must be reined in more than is done today by the U.S. and its allies around the world.  A Chinese model, with greater governmental control over the capitalist process, may be necessary for sustainability.

Labels such as capitalist and socialist seem counterproductive.  Specific issues and specific industries need to be handled differently.  For example, I know health care works best with a more socialist approach.  And it's clear that capitalism has worked best in industries such as autos and cell phones.  On the other hand, the auto industry has created a lot of negative side effects and cell phones may not be far behind in this regard.

Science and Technology

Fossil Fuels, Global Warming, Green Energy

• Global warming is a fact, which is what one would expect based upon the carbon cycle and the enormous amount of human activity and burning of hydrocarbons in the past 100-200 years.
• We don't know if all oil and gas comes from fossil fuels.  There is a possibility being investigated by the Deep Carbon Observatory, that some of the oil and gas we use is abiotic -- i.e. not a by-product of photosynthesis in ages past.
• Green energy is hugely important, but it is unrealistic to expect that we will be able to maintain our use of energy at current levels while phasing out fossil fuels.

Human Mind 

"the interaction between facts and theories is bidirectional. Your facts may eventually determine what theory you have. But your theory also determines what facts you see and notice. Nor do contradictory facts immediately change a theory. The process of theory change is complicated, fiercely resisted by hard-to-describe factors, and based on some sort of idea of global tension that can’t be directly reduced to any specific contradiction."

Covid Severity

• Covid is more serious in old and medically at-risk people than is the common flu.
• Covid is much less dangerous than portrayed by Democrats and the mainstream media.
• Covid vaccines are promising.  However, for those of us in the low risk population, the risks from the initial, poorly tested, vaccines may be higher than the risk from the Covid virus itself.
• Covid severity and treatment have been highly politicized by both Republicans and Democrats, with the media joining the Democrats and much of the scientific community in distorting the science.

COVID, Lyme Disease Origins

• COVID escaped from the Wuhan Lab.
• Lyme disease escaped from the secret biological weapons program on Plum Island, an island in Long Island Sound near Lyme, Connecticut.

COVID Transmission and Treatment (added 7/9/2021)

The Medical/Pharmaceutical/Scientific establishment is corrupt, ineffective, and socially toxic:

• COVID leaked from a lab in Wuhan.  Those who pointed out this possibility were condemned as conspiracy theorists by insiders with vested interests.
• The WHO and CDC were wrong on how SARS-Cov2 is transmitted.  They gave out bad advice and condemned those who turned out to be right.
• The WHO and CDC have been downplaying effective treatments such as ivermection and early treatment with anti-clotting and anti-inflammatory drugs.  Millions of lives have been lost as a result.  Those who have promoted safe, effective, and affordable treatment have been vilified and censored.  

For further discussion see: My Comments on Taibbi Post about Ivermectin

UPDATE 12/16/2021:  In addition to hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, and Vitamin D, there are other effective early treatments (and prophylactics) that have been advocated by the FLCCC and like minded doctors, but have been downplayed, ignored, or actively discourage by the CDC/WHO/Pharma complex.  These include cochicine and fluvoxamine (here, here, here, here, and here).  

Rationale for not encouraging use of cheap, safe, and effective drugs:

The Rev Kev

December 16, 2021 at 7:24 am

“Ancient Greek drug could cut COVID-19 deaths – Israeli scientist”

Considering the fact that this stuff has been in use for at lest 3,500 years, perhaps the FDA do not consider that it has had time to pass its initial trials for safety. Went looking for info on why it had become so expensive and came across an article that said ‘As part of its Unapproved Drugs Initiative designed to remove unapproved drugs from the market by means of a “risk-based enforcement program” that concentrates on products that “pose the highest threat to public health and without imposing undue burdens on consumers, or unnecessarily disrupting the market,” the FDA in September 2010 ordered a halt to the manufacture, distribution, and marketing of unapproved single-ingredient oral colchicine.’ This sounds like something that Fauci did during the AIDS epidemic when in 1987, the FDA changes its regulations, making any unapproved drug illegal. You read that article and find that it was all about giving a Pharma corporation an exclusive over this stuff. Why am I not surprised-

https://www.hcplive.com/view/why-is-colchicine-so-expensive-now

Also, this pre-covid (2016) article demonstrates that the dysfunctional covid response is a matter of chickens coming home to roost following years/decades of public health politicization:   U.S. Public Health Professionals Routinely Mislead the Public about Infectious Diseases: True or False? Dishonest or Self-Deceptive? Harmful or Benign? (Peter Sandman article)

And this: 

In a move that will come as a shock to absolutely no one, YouTube is censoring clips of Joe Rogan’s interview with cardiologist Peter McCullough wherein the doctor laid out how early treatment of COVID is being actively suppressed by governments and big-pharma in favour of a blind pursuit to vaccinate everyone.

Black Holes, Higgs Boson, etc.

• I don't know if black holes exist.  
• The field of quantum physics is filled with incomprehensible and untestable mumbo jumbo.  I don't know which concepts may eventually be tested and prove useful.  

Quantum Computing

I don't know if quantum computing will ever prove to be possible or practical.  The Case Against Quantum Computing, The proposed strategy relies on manipulating with high precision an unimaginably huge number of variables

Update 1/26/2024: A Skeptical Perspective on Quantum Computing, or how to game the funding system

X-Ray Crystallography

I know that the science of physics has yielded remarkably practical technologies such as computers.  Similar in nature to quantum physics, molecular and atomic physics is often obtuse.  However, various concepts have proven testable and controllable.  One example is x-ray crystallography, used in detecting and describing DNA, as well as in mineralogy and metallurgy. 

Self-Driving Cars

I know that autonomous vehicles have been vastly overhyped and are unlikely to prove economically viable or socially efficient in the foreseeable future.  They are possible, like supersonic jets and maglev trains, but not cost effective.  Hyperloops fall into the same category.

The Future

Is science slowing down?  We seem to have plucked a lot of the low hanging technological fruit, and are chasing improbable dreams. Limitless, green energy, autonomous vehicles, and quantum computing are examples.  Moreover, we may need to intentionally slow technology down if we are to attain an acceptable level of civilizational stability and sustainability.

Summary

Things I Know

1. Russiagate is a conspiracy theory unsupported by facts.
2. The attempted impeachment of Trump over events in the Ukraine was a creation of the U.S. national security state to fight back against investigation of their own misdeeds in Russiagate.
3. The U.S. led global empire supports biased international institutions such as the Organization for Prohibiting Chemical Weapons which has lied on behalf of U.S. interests, and against Russian interests, in Syria and in the U.K. with regard to the Skripal affair.
4. JFK was assassinated by elements of the U.S. security apparatus.
5. The mainstream media is not to be trusted on issues related to national "security", including national politics.
6. Alternative media are more reliable sources of the truth, and are threatened by the security state.
7. MMT provides an accurate model for contemporary monetary systems.
8. Labels such as socialist and capitalist are used as epithets to distract from constructive thinking about economic issues.
9. Global warming is real.
10. Green energy is hugely important, but it is unrealistic to expect that we will be able to maintain our use of energy at current levels while phasing out fossil fuels.
11. The human mind works by the formation of mental models.  These models are checked when sensory data is received.  When the data does not match the model, the issue may be escalated to a higher level for model revisions.  The conscious mind is the highest level.  Mental models do not change easily.
12. Covid is a serious disease, but its severity has been exaggerated by the mainstream to stigmatize Trump Republicans.
13. The covid virus escaped from the Wuhan Lab. 
14. Lyme disease escaped from the secret biological weapons program on Plum Island, an island in Long Island Sound near Lyme, Connecticut. 
15. Atomic physics has made possible enormous technological achievements such as computers and x-ray crystallography.
16. Autonomous vehicles have been vastly overhyped and are unlikely to prove economically viable or socially efficient in the foreseeable future.  

Things I Don't Know

1. Who shot down Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine?
2. Were there conspiracies related to the assassinations of RFK and MLK?
3. Will the first covid vaccines be more likely to save or cost lives?
4. Do black holes, with event horizons that nothing can escape, exist?
5. The usefulness of quantum physics?  
6. The possibility and practicality of a quantum computer?
   UPDATE 1/26/2024: I putting this into the "Things I Know" category.  Quantum computing will not prove practical anytime soon.