Going Down Fighting

The neocons look like they may drag us into nuclear war rather than admit they've been wrong in their vision of global community.  I am in favor of global community.  Modern civilizations are interconnected to a high degree, and we have to learn to live with one another, or perish.  

Perhaps singling out "neocons" is less useful than the older binary concepts of hawks and doves.  Hawks is a broader term than neocons, and we can see that there is broad bipartisan support for our current hawkish policy with regard to Russia.  For example, the new executive director of the Disinformation Governance Board is a progressive Democrat, and a hawk on Russia.

My view is that the hawks have bitten off more than they can chew in Russia.  Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine and will achieve their objectives.  This seems to be clear to the Western leadership which seems to be in panic mode -- almost every day promising to give more military aid to Ukraine.  The latest $33 billion aid package was proposed just a couple of days ago by the White House.  

I have no trouble with government spending in general, including spending to maintain peace and enforce laws.  The problem I've seen with the US military intelligence spending is corruption.  In much the same way that the West's rich have been accumulating capital but not finding productive ways to invest the capital, our military intelligence sector is glutted with money.  Enormous sums are available for think tanks and media operations that seek to further the propaganda war against Russia.  Likewise, the US political system is awash with lobbyists with vested interests in promoting increased military and intelligence spending.  

Thus, the Democratic chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and Trump impeachment manager, Adam Schiff, was either taken in or corrupted by the false Steele Dossier on Trump - Russian collusion.  His campaign contributors include Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Orbital ATK, Harris Corporation, and Raytheon.  Long before Russia invaded Ukraine, Schiff approvingly quoted State Department official George Kent who said:

"The United States aids Ukraine and her people, so that we can fight Russia over there, and we don’t have to fight Russia here."

My view is that the US resumed the cold war against Russia in 2014, and that truth has been subservient to our war aims ever since.  Truth is the first casualty of war, and the US government has not hidden its hostility toward Russia and its indifference to the truth with regard to Russia.  Greenwald, Taibbi, and others tried to warn us that this association of Trump and Putin followers as hated outgroups could lead to a hot war, so it should not be shocking that this has happened. Schiff and company were making the same argument and identifying Ukraine in particular as the location.  Constructive discussion of how to get along with Russia has been off the table.

Stepping back, I find it illuminating to compare the Ukraine war with the Cuban Missile Crisis.  The US was determined to go to war in Cuba if Russia did not back down in supplying weapons to Cuba.  Fortunately, Kennedy and Khrushchev desperately wanted to avoid war and were able to negotiate an agreement that successfully achieved this objective.  However, Kennedy was assassinated within a couple of years, not coincidentally in my understanding, and Khrushchev was also deposed, probably for the same reason.

At any rate, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where Russia is supplying weapons and whipping up anti-US hatred in a country on our border, where the US does not intervene militarily.  This is all the more unimaginable given that large sections of Ukrainian are Russian speaking and voted for pro-Russian politicians as opposed to pro-Western politicians before 2014 coup/revolution.  Imagine if the Trump/Republican states were to break off and then Russia was to start supplying them with weapons and anti-US cultural assistance.  The US would not hesitate to intervene militarily.

Such discussion is well outside the mainstream in the West.  We have such confidence in our anti-Russian world view that we cannot imagine that Russia could actually win in Ukraine.  Thus, when the evidence comes in, we try to ignore it by devoting even more resources to "fighting Russia over there so that we don’t have to fight Russia here."  We're going to go down fighting, it seems.

But how deep is our resolve?  Will we actually continue to escalate until such time that the physical war reaches the West as well as the Russian homeland?  Will there be (another) electoral revolt in November 2022 that will lead again to divided government and an ability to focus on the common enemy (Putin)?  Will the US go down fighting with one another rather than fighting the great enemy on the other side of the earth?  Or we will start to deal with our problems constructively rather than looking for scapegoats?

 

Nazis v Hitler

 Two viewpoints stand out with regard to this war:

1. The Ukrainian forces are Nazis.
2. It's all Putin's fault.  He's like Hitler.

I agree with #1 but not #2.

The Ukrainian forces are Nazis

The Ukrainian government and forces are literally Nazis in many instances.  Obviously they have evolved from the days of WWII.  But the essence of Nazism was preaching hatred against outgroups and my observation is that this is what many of the Uke forces have been doing leading up to the coup in 2014 and increasingly ever since.  

From my perspective in the United States, this hatred of Russians has been encouraged by the Ukrainian allies (neocons and friends of the military-intelligence complex) in the United States government.  Putin and the Russians have been used as scapegoats in disinformation promulgated by the intelligence services, mainstream media, Democratic party, and others.  I pointed this out in my post, The Facts Matter.  It's not just that we've been lying, it's that these venal lies have demonized one ethnic / national group that is far away and not able to defend itself.  

• Don't like the fact that Trump won?  Blame Russia and Putin!
• Don't like the fact that the Democrats are corrupt (in Ukraine and elsewhere)?  Blame Russia and Putin!
• Don't like the fact that the great US military was defeated by the Taliban?  Blame Russia and Putin!
• Dubious US supported biolabs revealed in Ukraine?  Warn that Russia and Putin are about to use biological weapons against us!
• Civilian deaths revealed in Ukraine?  Reflexively accuse Russia and Putin of genocide!

The venomous false accusations have taken a toll on our collective moral compasses in the United States and Ukraine.  For those in the West who are not literally Nazis, we've too often been driven to hatred of Russians via government sponsored propaganda.

It's all Putin's fault.  He's like Hitler

The absurd hatred of Trump has been amplified by association with Putin, and vice versa.  Trump is a narcissist.  His administration was tougher on Russia and Putin than was the Obama Administration.  The Mueller inquisition came up with nothing yet led to impeachment over hesitation in providing arms to Ukraine.  In short, the US government absurdly blamed Russia/Putin for Trump and has continued to double down on this for 6 years despite being proven wrong again and again.   The verdict is in but has been swept under the rug.  Trump is onboard with the Ukraine war from the US perspective and is basically irrelevant with regard to foreign affairs other than being used temporarily as a scapegoat in the service of anti-Russian hatred.

Putin himself has a successful record in foreign policy in standing up to the West.  First, he opposed the 2003 Iraq War and has been proven right.  His harshest critics in the US, those promoting hatred of Russia and putting him on a Hitleresque pedestal, were on the wrong side of that disastrous war that led to more than a million deaths, refugees, and the destruction of large swaths of civilization in the Middle East.

Next Russia opposed the expansion of NATO and anti-Russian posturing in Georgia.  Russia successfully intervened so that Russian majority territories are independent of the anti-Russian sentiments encouraged by the West.  Georgia has been peaceful ever since.

Russia and the US were on different sides in Syria.  The US supported Islamic terrorists who were defeated by the Syrian government with Russia's help.

In 2014, the US supported a coup in Ukraine which led to an anti-Russian government.  Russia successfully annexed Crimea and has dug in its heels against not only the expansion of NATO, but also against the anti-Russian hatred and lied emanating from the US.  

In 2022, Russia has taken a big step in militarily opposing NATO and the US militarization of Ukraine against Russia.  While Russia has been harshly criticized by the West for this, Putin has in no way behaved like Hitler or Trump in leading this battle.  The Russian military has avoided civilian targets and casualties, while the Nazis in Ukraine and the US have responded with false flag operations.  At least this my best guess based upon observation of Russia's behavior in Syria and the US behavior over the course of my lifetime including Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, as well as the facts (or lack of interest in them) in Ukraine.  Unlike Trump, Putin seems thoughtful and focused on Russia rather than on himself.  Unlike Hitler, Putin doesn't seem to be driven by hate or delusions of racial superiority.  Confronted by Nazis, he calls them out but recognizes that his actions in Ukraine will be worthless if he commits atrocities against the Russians there that he wants to win over.

Hitler, by contrast, came up through the ranks violently and with hatred against outgroups as a major component of his political stance.  Hitler was also far more aggressive and reckless than Putin has behaved in the 20+ years that he's led Russia.

Systemic Problems in West

The serious dysfunction in the US is not Trump's fault.  He's a symptom.  The desire to find one or two people to blame for our problems (Trump, Putin) is puerile.  We have systemic problems tied to our intelligence agencies and the enormous amounts of money allocated to maintaining and promoting the global empire that we inherited from the British.  Let's deal with that by focusing on true democracy at home, including freedom of speech, constitutional rights for all regardless of party affiliation, and respect for those institutions and authorities that do work well.  

The Dam Has Burst

 It feels to me like the dam has burst -- people in the West are starting to realize the truth about the destruction of Ukraine.  Ukraine, I barely knew you. 

The West is Losing the Information War

For a time it seemed that the West was winning the information war if not the real war in Ukraine.  But I'm beginning to the think that the opposite is true.  The censorship and opinion policing being undertaken by the social media giants and mainstream media doesn't work when work arounds are readily available.

If in fact Russia is winning the real war, then the West will take a real hit in the information war.  The initial propaganda blast from the West was so overwhelming that it will be a Vietnam / Iraq / Afghanistan blow to Western credibility.  I've been following a Singapore based analyst of the war who tries to be neutral, but has concluded that the Ukraine partisans cannot be believed whereas the Russian Ministry of Defense is reasonably accurate.  

Here's a more in-depth look at this phenomenon: Russia is NOT Losing the Information War.  Excerpts:

I frequently see the claim that Russia is losing the information war in Ukraine. This idea is widely believed, even by people who support Russia, and even some Russians themselves. As someone with relevant experience in that field, I can confidently say this is not true.

There is this idea that “both sides are equally bad” and everyone spreads disinformation. No. If a general or government spokesman says something, it should and absolutely must be a true statement, not a lie. If he says that 20 enemy tanks have been destroyed, that must be a true statement. If he says that we have had 500 soldiers killed in action, this must be a true statement. See, if a general lies about enemy casualties, and his own casualties, nothing he says can be trusted. This is why it is so important for official spokesmen and outlets to not tell lies.

The Nazi regime in Ukraine has lied, and lied repeatedly about everything. They have also gone to extraordinary lengths to make their lies appear credible with faked photo and video evidence. Absolutely nothing they say can be trusted. We cannot believe any claim coming out of their mouths. We cannot even believe a claim that appears to be true. It is better to ignore the Ukronazis altogether. Why waste precious time and mental bandwidth analyzing the words of someone who constantly lies? Just don’t. The more attention we give to fake news, the more people die (see my post Fake News Killed the Ukrainians and it is Our Fault)

Official institutions and media outlets are deliberately spreading lies, this is poisonous and destroys their credibility. I can never again listen to an American military spokesman and trust a single word coming out of his mouth...

As far as I can reasonably tell, the Russian MoD have told the truth and done their best to not distribute false information. This is the first and main reason I argue that Russia is not losing the information war. Both Ukraine and their NATO masters utterly destroyed their credibility, nothing they say can be believed. Russia still has their credibility intact, and that’s is a crucial part of winning the information war.

This is how I see the war news.  Biden and the West accept Ukrainian claims immediately and indiscriminately.  I've seen this before -- in Venezuela, for example, the US government and mainstream rushed to report atrocities by Maduro's troops when they were in fact committed by the anti-Maduro forces.  The NY Times eventually released video footage and commentary proving the US deception, but this was never acknowledged by the MSM in general or by the US government.  So I don't believe them now.

There's a pattern (from Intercept (NY Times indirect) link above):

EVERY MAJOR U.S. WAR of the last several decades has begun the same way: the U.S. government fabricates an inflammatory, emotionally provocative lie which large U.S. media outlets uncritically treat as truth while refusing to air questioning or dissent, thus inflaming primal anger against the country the U.S. wants to attack. That’s how we got the Vietnam War (North Vietnam attacks U.S. ships in the Gulf of Tonkin); the Gulf War (Saddam ripped babies from incubators); and, of course, the war in Iraq (Saddam had WMDs and formed an alliance with Al Qaeda).

Since then, we've had the horrific false flag chemical weapons attack in Syria.

I believe the initial information war victory by the West will prove as illusory as the real war victory.  I believe Putin and Russia are doing the world a favor by calling our bluff.  I've suffered a lifetime of disappointment at the conduct of our military-political-media leaders with regard to war related information, and its time for the truth to come out.

I could be wrong.  I love our country and the greater freedom of speech we enjoy.  It's time to use that freedom.

The Facts Matter

 A few days ago, Anne Applebaum was confronted with the falsity of charges of Russian disinformation.  Her response was that she doesn't care.  

I was discussing the falsity of charges of Russian information with a friend recently, writing a lengthy post documenting said falsity.  The response was that this is boring.

I've documented the fact that Adam Schiff was wrong in vouching for the veracity of the Steele Dossier:

Schiff has been notoriously wrong about Trump's involvement with Russia, claiming repeatedly, for example, that the Steele dossier was legitimate.  

Back in 2017, (Schiff) was the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and therefore the man Democrats counted on to lead the charge that Trump had colluded with the Kremlin in order to steal the election. He did so with gusto. Quoting from a dossier prepared by ex-British MI6 agent Christopher Steele, he regaled a March 2017 committee hearing with tales of how Russia bribed Trump adviser Carter Page by offering him a hefty slice of a Russian natural-gas company known as Rosneft and of how Russian agents boosted Trump’s political fortunes by hacking Hillary Clinton’s emails and passing them on to WikiLeaks...   

Hours later, he assured MSNBC that the evidence of collusion was “more than circumstantial.” Nine months after that, he informed CNN’s Jake Tapper that the case was no longer in doubt: “The Russians offered help, the campaign accepted help, the Russians gave help, and the president made full use of that help.” In February 2018, he told reporters: “There is certainly an abundance of non-public information that we’ve gathered in the investigation. And I think some of that non-public evidence is evidence on the issue of collusion and some … on the issue of obstruction.”

We now know definitely that this was false.  The primary sub-source for the Steele Dossier was Igor Danchenko, a DC-based Brookings Institution researcher who obtained incorrect information from Charles Dolan, a longtime Democrat tied to the Clintons since the early 1990s.

With the Steele Dossier discredited, the famous Mueller investigation of Trump was supposedly initiated based upon a Trump aide's meeting with Russian agent Joseph Mifsud.  Mifsud is a western intelligence asset, and not an agent of Putin as alleged, but nobody's cares to discuss this possibility.

Atrocities in the Ukraine war are routinely ascribed to Russians, whereas evidence of Ukrainian responsibility is not even considered in the "free world".  This repeats the coverage of the recent Syrian war with regard to chemical attacks.  Investigation is not important to the "free world".  Rather, there is a frenzy of immediate commendation based upon tribal emotions.

Nobody in the "free world" cares how the anti-Russian faction came to power in 2014.  Revolution or coup?  That question is central to the ongoing conflict, but there is no serious discussion.

Republicans attack Biden as being too soft on Putin.  Putin is a bipartisan scapegoat, justifying aggressive anti-Russian military behavior including increased military spending, censorship, and group think.

I appreciate the freedom of speech we have in the West, but it's no good if we don't speak up.  We are racing toward nuclear war based on lies.

Russiagate => Nuclear War

 It's hard to speak out on this, but this is the road we are on, in my opinion:

Russiagate => Trump Impeachment => War in Ukraine => Nuclear War

I'd like to speak up before it's too late to stop the last of these.