Wednesday, July 06, 2022

Collapse?

As the war in Ukraine drags on, it seems more and more likely that Russia is defeating NATO on a grand scale.  Because the West seemed to be winning the propaganda war, things got out of control, reflecting a long time disconnect between the West and the truth.  Gradually, the West is realizing that Russia may be as strong as, if not stronger than, the U.S. militarily.  After 4 months of self-satisfied snickering about Russian ineptitude, along with grandiose pronouncements that Ukraine is winning the war and that economic sanctions will devastate Russia, none of these things are happening.  Both militarily and diplomatically, Russia is mowing down the West.

The irony is delicious.  Because the West believes its own false propaganda, it keeps escalating the conflict.  It now seems likely that Russia will continue the war as long as they are winning, while the ever smaller Ukraine doubles down on its militant  hostility to Russia.  And the pace of Russian victory does seem to be accelerating such that the whole of Ukraine could be conquered by Russia within a year.  Moreover, it now seems plausible that, with NATO's military vulnerability exposed, Russia could take the Baltic states and Poland before the West comes to its senses.

I never before envisioned anything like this in my wildest dreams, and I doubt that Putin did either.  But that's where this war seems to be headed -- a long overdue reckoning with reality.  Peaceful coexistence in the long run should be the goal, and the West seems determined to irrationally resist that for reasons of domestic politics.

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