I’ve been reading the NY Times (headlines only), and the focal points of attention seem to have changed. There is now rarely anything about Putin or Ukraine, and when there is it is often more critical of U.S. policy. For example, there is one headline today mentioning Ukraine: U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Was Poorly Tracked, Pentagon Report Concludes. There are also articles indicating the military-intelligence establishment is divided internally. Here’s one from Newsweek from last July: Exclusive: The CIA’s Blind Spot about the Ukraine War. From this trend I’ve concluded that the neocons have lost clout.
What I do see in the NY Times headlines is many articles every day about Trump. From the tone of these headlines, I’ve concluded that the establishment’s main goal in the coming year is to defeat Trump and his fellow travellers. This power struggle is now the main focus. I tend to think that the establishment will be successful in defeating Trump and tightening its grip on the institutions which wield power. Perhaps we’ll get a President DeSantis or Gavin Newsom, or 4 more years of Biden, any of which would be acceptable to the powers that be. The important thing is to maintain the status quo with regard to power. And this is not totally unreasonable, considering that Trump is currently the only serious alternative. There is much wrong with our institutions, but we shouldn’t let them fall apart. (Although we've seen that Trump wasn't able to have much of an impact upon our institutions.)
On the other hand, it seems that democracy will continue to suffer. Defeating Trump will come via lawfare and other heavy handed tactics, and the problems which gave rise to Trump will not have gone away. My hope is that the next administration eventually feel secure enough from the populist threat that they will come to embrace needed change.
