Sunday, April 09, 2023

Russia's Strategic Advantage

Russia has learned a lesson from the colonial failures of the last 100 years.  Russia does not try to militarily occupy and administer hostile populations.  The West has portrayed this as weakness.

The Ukraine War demonstrates this. The West's oft stated goal was to weaken Russia by drawing it into an Afghanistan like situation.  See this 2019 RAND study: Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground, for example. Rather than fall into this trap, Russia has made clear that its objective is not to conquer Ukraine, but rather to protect and integrate the ethnic Russian population that was engaged in civil war with the western Ukraine and which clearly wants to be part of Russia.

While Russia militarily invaded central and northern Ukraine, this was part of an effort to weaken the Ukraine military that was attacking Donbass, and was also intended to force Ukraine to the bargaining table.  When the latter objective (negotiations) failed, the Russians quickly withdrew from central and northern Ukraine to focus their efforts on the areas with a supportive Russian population.  They do not want to administer the hostile parts of Ukraine -- a war torn region of 25-30 million people.

Given recent experiences in countries such as Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, this seems like a prudent course of action, and one which has highlighted the West's unwillingness to learn.  The conventional wisdom in the West has been that:

  1. Russia would quickly conquer all of Ukraine.
    and
  2. It's failure to do so was a sign of weakness.
If Russia had conquered Ukraine, it would be in charge of a hostile population and likely facing an insurgency.   As it is, it faces the more manageable task of integrating ethnic Russians into Russia.  On the world stage, Russia is demonstrating that its interests cannot be ignored by the West.  China, India, and are 3rd world nations are now joining Russia in calling for more even-handed mulitpolar institutions. 

On a related note, it seems that Russia's military industrial complex serves the country, rather than the other way around as in the U.S.  We have much to learn from our competitors on the world stage.

Wednesday, March 01, 2023

National Mythologies: East v West

 The conflict in Ukraine is coalescing into two warring camps:

  • The West: US, Europe, Anglo allies, Japan
  • The East: Russia, China
The bi-polar nature of the conflict is becoming more and more pronounced. Much of the world is looking on, but yet to definitively choose a side.  What does it look like from the outside?

The West's vision is of prosperity, technology, and freedom, the natural evolution of the industrial revolotuion and European colonization of the world.  The East's vision is of the rest of the world catching up to the West in technology and prosperity, and of pushing back with regard to freedom.  Western freedom has always favored the West, and Russia is fighting back on this front.  China has surveyed the landscape and decided it stands firmly with Russia in this regard.

Beyond the military/industrial/economic details lies mythology of who we are and what we stand for and where we are headed.  The West's enlightenment mythology is being exposed by the Internet,  Everybody can see the hypocrisy.  What does the East offer as an alternative?  
  1. The truth.  The East merely has to point out the hypocrisy of the West to earn empathy.
  2. A new world order which is fairer and with better prospects for peace.  The old world order is clearly failing with hot and cold wars drowning out the prospects for a prosperous future.  China and Russia regularly lay out the case for a new and improved multipolar world.
In short, the East has the better vision -- one based on reality.  The West's enlightenment vision has been corrupted beyond recognition.  The East offers better prospects for a healthy future.

Monday, February 27, 2023

Gratitude for Russia

"The point is that we are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield." - George Orwell, 'In Front Of Your Nose,' 1946.

Russia is one of only two countries with the economic and military might to stand up to the lies and military aggression of the US-led West. If Russia hadn't confronted the U.S. militarily over Ukraine, Western military agression would have gone on unchecked, creating additional catastrophes for human civilization such as we have seen in Vietnam, Indonesia, Iraq, Latin America, Afghanistan, Syria, and now Ukraine.

Humanity faces real problems such as global warming and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. has diverted attention from these problems while fear mongering with regard to countries such as China and Russia, and started a new and potentially fatal arms race.

So I am grateful to Putin and Russia and hope their victory in Ukraine knocks some sense into the West. They put everything on the iine for what they believe to be true and just. Then our number one priority, as passionately advocated by Scott Ritter, should be a return to serious arms control.

Monday, February 06, 2023

Saturday, February 04, 2023

Evil Defined

What is evil?  It can be defined by example.  It is criminal, but possibly understandable, to kill someone (e.g. crime of passion, self defense, revenge, etc.).  But to kill someone and blame someone else who is innocent is evil.  Any possible rationale with regard to ultimate justice is forfeited when the innocent are falsely accused.

And so the West's condemnation of Putin is the world's greatest evil today.  It has resulted in a horrific war in Ukraine and a new arms race that threatens to destroy humanity.  The West abrogrates treaties with Russia and moves weapons close to its borders, interferes violently in its politics and in the politics of neighboring countries, all the while accusing Russia of this behavior. 

This can be seen most clearly in the scapegoating of Russia for the election of Donald Trump in 2016.  Democratic politicians worked with the Ukraine governmet to falsely demonize Russia and Putin.  Working with a foreign government to influence an election is illegal.  Accusing Trump of doing what the Democrats were themselves doing is (and continues to be) evil.

The same can be said for war crimes in Ukraine.  War crimes committed by Ukrainian partisans are blamed on Russia.  These range from the horrific (Bucha) to the absurd (Nord Stream).

Russia is a convenient scapegoat as they are remote and have no voice in the West.  But the evil can be seen in events that have nothing to do with Russia.  For example, the covid crisis resulted in Western leadership blaming Trumpers and independents for covid disinformation, while spreading disinformation about ivermectin, vaccines, lab origins, etc.  Fauci and friends not only made mistakes, but they blamed the mistakes on others who were innocent.

We need truth and reconciliation.  The world needs to come together to fight serious problems such as the arms race, the threat of pandemic, environmental crises, and, yes, disinformation.  The West wasn't wrong to want to fight disinformation, but it was wrong to blame innocent people while the leadership spread disinformation as described above.

The West Faces Greatest Threat Ever

The "West" -- the anglophile countries plus western Europe and Japan -- is now in its worst geopolitical position ever.  This is worse than WWII when Germany and Japan were relatively isolated and bereft of natural resources.  This is worse than the heyday of the Soviet Union in alliance with Communist China in the 1960s.  Now we are in a hot, if proxy, war with Russia, and in a cold war with China.  China and Russia are strongly allied and much more powerful than they were in the 1960s. China is the world's premier manufacturer, and Russia is the leader in natural resources.  

Wednesday, February 01, 2023

The Worst Human Group Experience

Other than natural disaster, is there anything worse for a society than to be on the losing side in a war?  

Saturday, January 28, 2023

Emotion has Sealed my Worldview

Here is a bit of self reflection.  I've noticed that I occasionally become overwhelmed with revulsion at certain behaviors and my mind is then made up.  I'm an open-minded person by nature, but there seems to a mechanism at work that keeps me from carrying this too far.  I previously took this approach more logically, writing a blog post entitled This I Believe.  I'm glad I did that as it has helped me to understand the world better.  Certain things are obvious to me and I will not let myself be gaslit.  

Logically, I say these are things that I'm > 95% sure of.  But that's intuition.  I don't have a spreadsheet for each thing I believe.  Rather, one of the functions of emotion is to fortify beliefs.  A good rule of thumb, perhaps, in expressing such strongly held beliefs is to use I-language.  For example, 

In hearing Democrats speak about Russia, I have been repeatedly overwhelmed with the feeling that they are catastrophically wrong.  This has made a profound impact on me and one that I can't / don't want to forget. 

This seems less threatening than:

Democrats continually lie about Russia and exaggerate the threat it poses to the West.  Western elites are evil in fomenting hatred against Russia based upon such lies and exaggerations. 

Monday, January 16, 2023

The Military-Financial-Information Complex

Like cancer, the U.S. military-financial-information complex (industry is less of a factor in comparison to Eisenhower's day) has strayed from its original mission and is attacking the host.

It's almost impossible to avoid being a part of this in one's daily life.

The social democratic model has proven the most effective form of political-economic governance. What prevents that from (re)emerging in US and from spreading across the globe? Why has that faltered in Britain?

Are Trump and Putin to blame? Or is there something more broadly cultural and systemic in the Anglosphere?

Did Merkel genuinely want peace in Ukraine, but was overridden by the Anglosphere? Is this a relevant context for Victoria Nuland's infamous "Fuck the EU" remark?

Primary Sources

One of the best developments of the 21st century, in my view, has been video reporting exposing the lies and errors of public officials. The Daily Show with Jon Stewart did a good job of exposing government and media misinformation with regard to the 2003 Iraq War, an event with massive consequences in terms of death, destruction, refugee crises, and trust in our institutions, both national and international. The videos juxtaposed statements by government officials and mainstream media organs with conflicting reporting of events (by equally "authoritative" institutions) as they actually turned out. We didn't have to trust Jon Stewart, we just had to trust our own eyes and ears and be alert to any signs that Stewart might be taking things out of context or doctoring videos.

In the current era of anti-Putin hysteria, there are equally good video reports available which make crystal clear the lies and errors of public officials with regard to a massively consequential event - the false demonization of Putin and the war in Ukraine. Here are some:

I laugh and cry as I watch these.

Making Sense of the Cultural Landscape

I've found the following books helpful in making sense of the cultural landscape:

  1. The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millenium, by Martin Gurri

  2. Conspiracy Theory in America (Discovering America) by Lance deHaven-Smith

The former describes the threat of nihilism in our new technological world where information (and mis-information) is made available freely, easily, and quickly across the globe. Institutional shortcomings and crimes can now be exposed more easily, and institutions and authority figures can be falsely and irresponsibly accused.

The second book describes the importance of looking objectively and comprehensively at potential state crimes (against democracy).  While the Internet facilitates the spread of false conspiracy theories, these can includes false narratives promoted by the state.  In looking for the truth in matters of societal life and death (war, assassination, censorship, and imprisonment), state crimes are not only possible but common.  The state propagandizes against such investigation, dismissing legitimate concerns and inquiries as conspiracy theories.  Citizens of democracies can be on the alert for these attempts to exclude potential state crimes from legitimate scrutiny, and to deflect attention onto scapegoats such as Putin.


Thursday, October 20, 2022

Immigration

Immigration is a force of nature, driven by inequality between countries, as well as by opportunity.  Managing immigration is a complex task, as it involves ethnic, economic, political, and environmental factors in both the from and to countries, and also in international relations.  Considering the U.S. as a nation of immigrants, for example, we see that attempts to control the process were at times racist and were generally ineffective in terms of justice for the natives (incumbents).  We've been doing better in recent years, but tensions still exist and need to be addressed.   This post provides some good broad principles for nations on the receiving side of human migration.


There are also larger issues related to the forces driving and enabling immigration.  Consider the matter of political intrigue.  Yasha Levine is writing a book titled The Soviet Jew: A Weaponized Immigrant’s Tale.  In my world view, we need to consider the role of global power politics with regard to immigration.  To what extent are immigrants exploited not just for economic gain, but for political gain?  Just as economic exploitation can harm workers in receiving nations, so can political exploitation harm political liberals in receiving nations.  The political situation in Europe, since the failed Arab Spring, provides a clear, if not straightforward, example of this.  Steve's post addresses these political concerns in a practical manner, but the root cause is another matter.


Looking at the West as a U.S.-centered empire is a useful lens in this respect.  In an effort to strengthen the borders and extend the frontiers of our "liberal democratic" civilization/empire, we reward citizens of the empire with the ability to immigrate to the more prosperous nations of the empire.  Similarly, we encourage dissidents in enemy nations to immigrate to nations within the empire.  In this manner, the Western empire is strengthened politically in relation to foreign competitors such as Russia and China.  There is a risk that healthy competition between empires becomes overshadowed by power politics and propaganda, with immigration being weaponized.  How should our policy prioritize amongst applicants o as to promote peaceful and cooperative international relations? 


So I am agreeing with the post, while also urging consideration of the larger geopolitical framework.  Thanks as always for the thought provoking and constructive words.


Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Politics & War

A post by Steve Waldman -- Peace as war by other means -- reminds me of a recent post by Big Serge: Politics By Other Means - Putin and Clausewitz.  I highly recommend that post in its entirety.  It is a tour de force, in my opinion.  Both the Waldman and Big Serge posts zoom out to look at the long term interests for the two sides in the current war.  Both recognize that “War is the mere continuation of politics by other means", as Clausewitz wrote.  

The Waldman post suggests that we move from war back to non-violent politics.  Russia and Ukraine have legitimate differences which can't be papered over.  Since war is often lose-lose, it would make sense for the two countries to compete for hearts and minds in the political and economic arenas.  May the best country win, but not at the expense of tens of thousands of soldiers and innocent civilians.

Big Serge, on the other hand, sees that Russia has the laid the groundwork for victory in an existential battle with the West.  Russia has been losing politically for years or decades, and Russian leadership came to the conclusion that its very existence as an independent culture was at stake given the political trends and the positioning of the Western military.  The Russian leadership therefore consciously chose to go to war in Ukraine in order to turn the political tide.  The current war will be win-lose, and Russia will win in that their political objective of stopping Western encroachment will be achieved.

If Big Serge is right, and I think he is, then Russia would be foolish to enter into a negotiated ceasefire at the present time, as long as Ukraine remains militarized by NATO.  Better to press the military advantage and drive NATO out of Ukraine.  Politically, this will be an obvious loss for the West.  The West will have to recognize Russian sovereignty and respect its hegemonic influence in neighboring countries.  

So, in my opinion, Waldman's proposal would be good for the West but not for Russia.  Yet, there seems to be little chance that the West will negotiate in the near future (as documented extensively by Aaron Mate).  The West is unable and/or unwilling to see that negotiations such as Waldman proposes would be in its own best interests.  This points to deeper problems in Western societies.

War is indeed politics by other (violent) means.  The West is engaged in a proxy war.  Russia is engaged in an existential war.  As Big Serge puts it:

Putin and those around him conceived of the Russo-Ukrainian War in existential terms from the very beginning. It is unlikely, however, that most Russians understood this. Instead, they likely viewed the war the same way Americans viewed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - as justified military enterprises that were nevertheless merely a technocratic task for the professional military; hardly a matter of life and death for the nation…

What has happened in the months since February 24 is rather remarkable. The existential war for the Russian nation has been incarnated and made real for Russian citizens. Sanctions and anti-Russian propaganda - demonizing the entire nation as “orcs” - has rallied even initially skeptical Russians behind the war, and Putin’s approval rating has soared. A core western assumption, that Russians would turn on the government, has reversed. Videos showing the torture of Russian POWs by frothing Ukrainians, of Ukrainian soldiers calling Russian mothers to mockingly tell them their sons are dead, of Russian children killed by shelling in Donetsk, have served to validate Putin’s implicit claim that Ukraine is a demon possessed state that must be exorcised with high explosives. Amidst all of this - helpfully, from the perspective of Alexander Dugin and his neophytes - American pseudo-intellectual “Blue Checks” have publicly drooled over the prospect of “decolonizing and demilitarizing” Russia, which plainly entails the dismemberment of the Russian state and the partitioning of its territory. The government of Ukraine (in now deleted tweets) publicly claimed that Russians are prone to barbarism because they are a mongrel race with Asiatic blood mixing.

Simultaneously, Putin has moved towards - and ultimately achieved - his project of formal annexation of Ukraine’s old eastern rim. This has also legally transformed the war into an existential struggle. Further Ukrainian advances in the east are now, in the eyes of the Russian state, an assault on sovereign Russian territory and an attempt to destroy the integrity of the Russian state. Recent polling shows that a supermajority of Russians support defending these new territories at any cost.

All domains now align. Putin and company conceived of this war from the beginning as an existential struggle for Russia, to eject an anti-Russian puppet state from its doorstep and defeat a hostile incursion into Russian civilizational space. Public opinion is now increasingly in agreement with this (surveys show that Russian distrust of NATO and “western values” have skyrocketed), and the legal framework post-annexation recognizes this as well. The ideological, political, and legal domains are now united in the view that Russia is fighting for its very existence in Ukraine…

All that remains is the implementation of this consensus in the material world of fist and boot, bullet and shell, blood and iron.

The deeper problem in Western society is that we do not understand what we are up against and why.  We have been blinded by propaganda and even valiant attempts to light the way such as this by Steve Waldman may be seen as outrageous (although there are many disclaimers here blaming Russia as being solely at fault).  We the people of the West need to expand our horizons, in my opinion.  The future for our children's children's children depends on us coming to terms with political reality.  We need to end the hot war in Ukraine and the new Cold War by recognizing the limits to the projection of our military power, and by embraciing and strengthening international institutions with the potential to solve conflicts peacefullly and limit arms races.

Sunday, October 09, 2022

Thank You Jeffrey Sachs

 Thank You Jeffrey Sachs

Here's is someone who seems to have come to the same conclusions as I have about a couple of the most important issues of our time.  I felt like I was listening to myself when I watched the following 2 videos.  However Sachs has credentials in the areas being discussed.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, where he holds the rank of University Professor, the university’s highest academic rank. Sachs was Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University from 2002 to 2016. He is President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Chair of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission, Co-Chair of the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition, academician of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences at the Vatican, Commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development, Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah Honorary Distinguished Professor at Sunway University, and SDG Advocate for UN Secretary General António Guterres. From 2001-18, Sachs served as Special Advisor to UN Secretaries-General Kofi Annan (2001-7), Ban Ki-moon (2008-16), and António Guterres (2017-18). Sachs has authored and edited numerous books, including three New York Times bestsellers: The End of Poverty (2005), Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet (2008), and The Price of Civilization (2011). Other books include To Move the World: JFK’s Quest for Peace (2013), The Age of Sustainable Development (2015), Building the New American Economy: Smart, Fair & Sustainable (2017), A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism (2018), and most recently, The Ages of Globalization: Geography, Technology, and Institutions (2020). Sachs is the 2022 recipient of the Tang Prize in Sustainable Development and was the co-recipient of the 2015 Blue Planet Prize, the leading global prize for environmental leadership. He was twice named among Time magazine’s 100 most influential world leaders. Sachs has received 40 honorary doctorates, and his recent awards include the Legion of Honor by decree of the President of the Republic of France, and the Order of the Cross from Estonia. Prior to joining Columbia, Sachs spent over twenty years as a professor at Harvard University, most recently as the Galen L. Stone Professor of International Trade. A native of Detroit, Michigan, Sachs received his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees at Harvard.

So Sachs is about my age (he's 67, I'm 70) and we're both from Detroit.  I also have a degree in economics and spent some time working in that field.

Here are the two videos which resonated with me to such an extent that I feel the need to spread the word far and wide:

See what you think.

 

Saturday, August 20, 2022

Brave Freedom Fighters or Uncompromising Nazis

 This post is along the same lines as my last.  I can't get this out of my head apparently.  

It was widely believed, by both the West and Russia (according to the West), that Russia would easily defeat Ukraine militarily.  Given this, it seems to me that the right thing to do for brave freedom fighters would be to save their freedom by agreeing to the Minsk 2 accords.  Yes, this would mean conceding some autonomy to the pro-Russian part of the country.  For example, the Russian speakers could be allowed to use their language in schools and government.  If freedom is the cause, this is a reasonable price to pay.

If however the leadership of Ukraine was controlled by uncompromising Nazis (as claimed by Russia), then the events this year make much more sense.  Instead of compromising, the leadership decided to go all out, fighting against the odds to defeat the hated enemy.  This meant conducting military operations from amidst civilian centers, using schools and hospitals for example, as well as residences.  From this position, the Russians could be accused of committing war crimes.  Falso flag operations could be justified in the fight against the odds against the hated enemy.  Execution of prisoners, torture, and suspension of freedoms in Ukraine were seen as legitimate means to the ends of defeating the hated enemy.  

As the war progressed, the Nazi leadership felt vindicated as the West bought their lies wholesale, and military and economic support poured in in vast quantities, in addition to economic and cultrual sanctions against the hated Russians.  Militarily, however, the Russians are winning decisively as most would have predicted.  The Nazi leadership has doubled down in desperation, forcing citizens into the army and horrific conditions at the front, suspending opposition political parties and freedom of the press, making absurd and contradictory false flag claims (Russian is bombing their own POW camps -- camps they control, Russia bombing a nuclear power plant it controls or, alternatively, Russia is using the nuclear power plant for military operations and therefore Ukraine attacks on the plant are justified), and bombing civilian areas using prohibited weapons such as petal mines.  

The extent of the lying and cruelty certainly fits the Nazi perspective.  Everything makes sense to me when viewed in this light, and the degree to which the West is complicit, led by the same people who have destroyed the Middle East, is hrrifying, and seems worth pointing out.

One could strong man the case the war proves the point Ukraine was right to fight against the omnivorous Russian bear, but it's becoming increasingly clear who has been telling the truth, as well as the extent that the truth is considered treason in the West.




Sunday, August 07, 2022

Hypocritical Ethnonationalism -- Why Russia Was Justified in Attacking Ukraine

Freedom Fighters or Terrorists?

As the US has recently considered labeling Rusia a sponsor of state terrorism, it's interesting to look at U.S. behavior in that light.

  1. The U.S. has sponsored terrorists across the Middle East, from Afghanistan to Syria.
  2. The U.S., through the CIA, has worked with Nazis in western Ukraine ever since World War II.  Since the Nazis have become influential in the Ukrainian government and military, the United States has given them lethal weapons.
  3. The CIA is notorious for working with violent rebel groups such as the Contras in Nicaragua and UNITA in Angola.
  4. The U.S. has supported innumerable coups in places such as Iran, Guatemala, Turkey, Vietnam, etc.
The U.S. has also supported color revolutions in places such as Georgia (Rose) and Ukraine (Orange).  According to Wikipedia, "Russia, China and Vietnam share the view that colour revolutions are the "product of machinations by the United States and other Western powers" and pose a vital threat to their public and national security."  With roughly 750 foreign military bases in 80 nations around the world, the U.S. can and does cross the line between supporting peaceful protesters and supporting violent separatists.

During the Cold War, U.S. support for violent rebels was generally justified as a reaction to the Communists, especially Russia.  Thus, the U.S. supported for "freedom fighters" in Nicaragua and Afghanistan, for example.  But the Russian communists unilaterally ended the Cold War in 1990 and pulled back considerably.  Former members of the communist bloc in eastern Europe are now members of NATO.  Proxy wars around the world became fewer in number, but perhaps are on the upswing again as demonstrated most horrifically in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia itself became the site of a horrific rebellion in Chechnya.  Peace was only returned to the region after hundreds of thousands were killed and displaced.  My recollection is that Russia was criticized in the West for dealing harshly with the rebels.  But the lesson seems to be that violent rebellion often to horrendous suffering for the people in the rebeling area.  

Consider Xinjiang and the Uyghurs in China.  China has reacted strongly to the threat of violent rebellion and has, consequently, been accused of "genocide" by the West.  But few if any Uyghurs have been killed and the region has become more prosperous while the Uyghur population has increased.  The lesson here seems to be that China's tough policies may have helped overall by preserving peace, in spite of the adverse judgment of the West.  Xinjiang might have been fine without China's paternalistic crackdown, but experiences in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, and elsewhere across the Islamic world show that the downsides of violent rebellion should not be underestimated.

I firmly believe in the right to peaceful protest.  The world community, led by the U.S., is right to care about human rights everywhere.  The problem is that we've sometimes been corrupt, willfully blind and hypocritical, in our assessments.  A Biblical verse comes to mind:

Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye;
and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye. [Matthew, 7:5]

Ethnonationalism in US, China, and Russia

In the U.S., we've largely mischaracterized the largely peaceful protest on January 6, 2021 as a violent insurrection.  This conveniently overlooks the obvious entrapment of protestors who entered the capitol at the direction of an obvious agent of the U.S. government (Ray Epps and company).  Are there potentially violent ethnonationalists who vote for Trump in the U.S?  I think so. But they have effectively marginalized by the FBI and related law enforcement agencies.

Similar to the alleged Trumpian ethnonationalist threat, some in the West believe that Putin in Russia and Xi in China are sponsoring ethnonationalist identities which threaten peaceful coexistence in our world community.  While I agree that ethnonationalism is a great danger and has led to much suffering in human history, I think it is important to recognize that nationalism has a place in a healthy modern world; i.e. not all nationalism is evil.  Putin and Xi, it seems to me, have generally favorable records in staking out functional nations in an increasingly dysfunctional world.  Minorities are given more than lip service in Russia and China, but majority rule is not overwhelmed by the competing factions.

Ukrainian Ethnonationalism

Now look at the ethnonationalist situation in Ukraine.   The erstwhile fledgling democracy was overwhelmed by ethnonationalism beginning with the largely peaceful Orange Revolution in 2004.  Nazi collaborators who had been working with the CIA and the World Anti-Communist League, in opposition to Russia and China in the Cold War, were rehabilitated by the U.S. backed Yushchenko government.  

After his victory (in 2004), Yushchenko embarked on a full rehabilitation of the Nazi collaborator OUN (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists), which had been active participants in the Holocaust. Streets and cities were renamed, monuments to the fascist killers were erected throughout the country, and Yushchenko awarded hero of Ukraine to the infamous OUN commanders Stepan Bandera and even Roman Shukhevych, who once murdered 8,000 Poles in a single day, to widespread condemnation both at home and abroad.

Starting in 2004 with the Orange Revolution, Ukrainian society has been embroiled in a nearly two-decade long era of chaos and bloodshed, the grisly results of which we see in the current war. Slava Stetsko’s CIA-backed Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists (KUN) was there for all of it, starting from the street protests in 2004 to the Maidan coup in 2014 and the bloody repression of the Donbas which followed.

A survey conducted in November 2013 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) shows that it was split almost exactly “50/50” between those who favored an agreement with the European Union and those favoring a customs union with Russia. 

Instead of dealing democratically with this situation, there was a violent U.S. supported coup in 2014, followed by violent repression of Russian protestors.  Unlike the situations in Chechnya or Xinjiang, this was not a minority rebellion but rather a 50/50 civil war scenario.  The Minsk accords, attempts to resolve the situation peacefully and democratically, were ignored by the Ukrainian government.  The U.S. decided to support the anti-Russian side diplomatically and militarily, and the civil war eventually became a proxy war between the United States and Russia.

At this point, it's helpful to look at these key points:
  • Which group was violently ethnonationalist?
  • What were the interests of the proxy war nations, the U.S. and Russia?
The Ukrainian ethnonationalists were clearly the violent agressors in the civil war.  They were joined by long time cold warriors from the West, and by more moderate Ukrainian factions who simply preferred closer ties with the West, as opposed to Russia.  This coalition came to be dominated by the more militant, ethnonationalist (anti-Russian) faction.  Thus, while President Zelensky was elected as a peace candidate who would implement the Minsk accords, he had to abandon this position in favor of militancy.

U.S. Anti-Russian Militancy

Since the 2014 coup, the U.S. government has become increasingly militant and anti-Russian.  President Trump was accused of being a Russian puppet and impeached for hesitating in the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine.  Mainstream media and politicians accused the Russians of Pearl Harbor level aggression, in addition to the sabotage of the U.S. political system.  Influential think tanks produced papers on how best to weaken Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.  Adam Schiff, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, opined that we have to fight Russia over there (in Ukraine), so we don't have to fight them here (in the U.S.).  Congressional groups participated in discussions on how to dismantle Russia so that its very ethnic groups can be free.  Former Russian allies in Eastern Europe became hostile opponents with NATO forces and missles able to strike Russia.  Attempts to promote trade with Russia, such as the Nordstream 2 pipeline, were sabotaged by anti-Russian militants.  Most critically, a neighboring country, Ukraine, that had mostly been part of Russia for hundreds of years and was populated by Russian speakers with Russian culture, was militantly anti-Russian and attacking Russian speakers in the civil war.

International Law

I hear of Russian irredentism and the need to respect international borders,  Unfortunately, and this is one of Russia's main reasons for attacking Ukraine, international law on these matters has become something of a joke.  Most famously, the U.S. unilaterally invaded Iraq in 2003 under false pretenses.  Rather than being taken to task by international institutions for this calamitous aggression, the same political faction that perpetrated these war crimes has come to dominate U.S. foreign policy and ALSO to dominate the relevant international institutions.  

The U.S. has ignored and manipulated international law in Syria, Central America, Yugoslavia, Israel, and many other places around the world.  Sometimes this may be justified based upon special circumstances.  I feel that way about U.S. involvement in Yugoslavia, for example.  There was a tremendous amount of violence there before the U.S. intervened, and the violence diminished after the U.S. intervention.  Context matters.  There's a big difference between what the U..S. did in Yugoslavia in the 1990s and what this U.S. has done in the Middle East this century.  

International law is supremely important, but it has been abused by the United States to an extent that it is unreasonable to expect countries such as Russia to play by a different set of rules.  The history of Ukraine matters.
  1. Most of Ukraine was part of Russia for hundreds of years.  Consequently, many there speak Russian and have many Russian cultural values.
  2. Ukraine as an entity is a fairly recent and short lived phenomenon.  The Soviet Union established the borders of Ukraine, with input from other allies following their victory in WWII.
  3. The USSR voluntarily granted independence to Ukraine and other former consituent republics only 32 years ago.  This was done with a spirit of international goodwill. 
  4. Following Ukrainian independence, there was a time of chaos and a power vacuum partially filled by the U.S., probably with the best of intentions.
  5. The situation has changed and a renewed Cold War is underway.
  6. Borders and agreements from the newborn nation of Ukraine should not be cast in concrete.  The situation is fluid and flexibility is needed to create stability and accomodate the interests of the various ethnic groups that have been thrown together.
  7. Crimea and Donbas have had referendums and clearly prefer to be with Russia rather than the ethnonationalist Ukrainians.
Efforts at diplomacy failed due to U.S. / ethnonationalist Ukrainian intransigence.  International institutions have been compromised and corrupted.  Russia has been attacked economically and culturally by the West since 2014.  Militarily, there has been a steady advance by West into Russia's borderlands, accompanied by increasingly aggressive rhetoric.  Russia's leader has been demonized.  

Meanwhile, the U.S. is becoming increasingly dysfunctional. Political and media institutions are extremely unpopular and widely distrusted.  The electorate is divided into groups that distrust one another.  Propaganda and censorship are on the rise, often scapegoating Russia for these US problems.  Most of all, the military intelligence complex has become a swollen, corrupting cancer, devouring resources and polluting the culture with lies (such as Russiagate). This is not good for the U.S., for Russia, or for the world.  Someone needs to stop us for our own good.

While I'm a great believer in democracy, we don't seem to be at the point where the world's problems can be solved peacefully.  Rather, courage is needed to stand up to the U.S. military and insist on a return to a world order based upon relatively impartial and honest institutions. Russia is apparently the only country that can do this.  I believe they are doing humanity a great service by standing up to the corrupt, cancerous US led empire.  Their courageous principled stand may ultimately save us.

From the Russian Perspective

Imagine a Trumpian coup spearheaded by Oath Keepers and Proud Boys being supported with virtually unlimited weapons from Russia and other anti-US countries.   Why is the Azov Battalion more deserving of weapons than the Proud Boys?

Saturday, August 06, 2022

Ukraine Timeline

Because I'm having formatting issues with Blogger, please see this post in Google Docs: Ukraine Timeline

Wednesday, July 06, 2022

Collapse?

As the war in Ukraine drags on, it seems more and more likely that Russia is defeating NATO on a grand scale.  Because the West seemed to be winning the propaganda war, things got out of control, reflecting a long time disconnect between the West and the truth.  Gradually, the West is realizing that Russia may be as strong as, if not stronger than, the U.S. militarily.  After 4 months of self-satisfied snickering about Russian ineptitude, along with grandiose pronouncements that Ukraine is winning the war and that economic sanctions will devastate Russia, none of these things are happening.  Both militarily and diplomatically, Russia is mowing down the West.

The irony is delicious.  Because the West believes its own false propaganda, it keeps escalating the conflict.  It now seems likely that Russia will continue the war as long as they are winning, while the ever smaller Ukraine doubles down on its militant  hostility to Russia.  And the pace of Russian victory does seem to be accelerating such that the whole of Ukraine could be conquered by Russia within a year.  Moreover, it now seems plausible that, with NATO's military vulnerability exposed, Russia could take the Baltic states and Poland before the West comes to its senses.

I never before envisioned anything like this in my wildest dreams, and I doubt that Putin did either.  But that's where this war seems to be headed -- a long overdue reckoning with reality.  Peaceful coexistence in the long run should be the goal, and the West seems determined to irrationally resist that for reasons of domestic politics.

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Drawing the Line Against Orwellian Culture

 I’ve been thinking about U.S. and Russian culture lately, and have been wondering if Russian culture isn’t superior at the moment. That’s on the border of acceptable thought — Can we see that one culture is superior to another? Certainly cultures go awry due to faulty institutions. The U.S., where I’ve spent most of my 70 years, has a strong culture but is corrupted as the imperial center of power. The wannabe unipolar military intelligence complex reaches into every corner of the world in increasingly Orwellian fashion. Russia is drawing the line and putting Russian lives on the line.

Worldview

 I haven't been posting much here of late because I prefer writing in Google Docs. I've been linking most of my great thoughts into ...