Biden candidacy is unpopular with Bernie supporters and with a large section of Hillary supporters. Enthusiasm is probably thin even with establishment figures who seem to be his biggest boosters.
Warren is the only candidate who can attract both Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters. However, she is opposed by the establishment who prefer Biden.
Sanders has a large base of enthusiastic and dedicated supporters, a well organized campaign, and lots of money. However, he is disliked by many former Hillary supporters. Biden cannot win if Sanders and Warren can somehow join forces.
The other candidates are long shots, lacking name recognition and distinctive characteristics.
The Trump team is looking stronger going into the campaign season:
With the resulting establishment vacuum, the populist Democratic candidates will get a boost. Hopefully, the Sanders and Warren campaigns will team up to defeat Trump. If they can do this, the republic will be saved. Otherwise, we’re looking at term two for Trump.
People will disagree with much of what I’ve written here, but ultimately the fundamental disagreement is over the truth of the Russian collusion charges. If you, like me, feel that the charges were bogus, then the two year investigation which resulted in several Republicans being imprisoned on issues unrelated to conspiracy is enough, and Barr is right to investigate mistakes that may have been made in launching the investigations. On the other hand, if you still believe that there might be something truthful about the Trump-Russia conspiracy charges, then you want to remove the redactions, interview Mueller, and probe more into how Trump was obstructing justice, in order to reveal the still hidden truth.
Warren is the only candidate who can attract both Bernie supporters and Hillary supporters. However, she is opposed by the establishment who prefer Biden.
Sanders has a large base of enthusiastic and dedicated supporters, a well organized campaign, and lots of money. However, he is disliked by many former Hillary supporters. Biden cannot win if Sanders and Warren can somehow join forces.
The other candidates are long shots, lacking name recognition and distinctive characteristics.
The Trump team is looking stronger going into the campaign season:
- The Russian collusion charges appear to be unfounded. Yet almost all Democrats are on the wrong side of this, including the anti-Trump establishment. As Nancy Pelosi has said, Trump is trying to goad the Democrats into impeachment. Trump has the upper hand as Democrats are seen as impotent wimps if they don’t carry out the impeachment. But if they do proceed with impeachment, it will spotlight the one area where Trump is telling the truth and Democrats are defending false conspiracy theories. In the meantime, three official investigations on the other side of Russiagate (looking into malfeasance in investigating Trump) are underway, and these are likely to prove that serious mistakes were made in initiating the Russiagate investigations.
- Trump is moving aggressively with his bread and butter issues of limiting immigration and getting tough on trade with China. This will rally his base who had previously been ignored as Trump played to the wealthy establishment. With anti-establishment sentiment stronger than ever, Trump is in position to harness this to his advantage once again.
With the resulting establishment vacuum, the populist Democratic candidates will get a boost. Hopefully, the Sanders and Warren campaigns will team up to defeat Trump. If they can do this, the republic will be saved. Otherwise, we’re looking at term two for Trump.
People will disagree with much of what I’ve written here, but ultimately the fundamental disagreement is over the truth of the Russian collusion charges. If you, like me, feel that the charges were bogus, then the two year investigation which resulted in several Republicans being imprisoned on issues unrelated to conspiracy is enough, and Barr is right to investigate mistakes that may have been made in launching the investigations. On the other hand, if you still believe that there might be something truthful about the Trump-Russia conspiracy charges, then you want to remove the redactions, interview Mueller, and probe more into how Trump was obstructing justice, in order to reveal the still hidden truth.
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