Impeachment ... GROAN... But There's Hope!

Impeachment ... GROAN... But There's Hope!

1. This is the CIA fighting back against the Trump Administration (Barr) which is investigating likely intelligence community misdeeds with regard to Russiagate.
2. Trump decided to play hardball and investigate the Ukrainian involvement in Russiagate, and may have tried to use money (military aid) to accomplish this.
3. The CIA played hardball right back by concocting a dubious "whistleblower" exposure of Trump's Ukrainian investigation.  I say dubious and put "whistleblower" in quotes because the accusations are obviously partisan infighting as opposed to a lone whistleblower taking on the powers that be.  The CIA, the media, and the Democrats have been on the whistleblower's side from the start, even before the facts behind the accusations emerged.
4. The Democrats and the CIA are trying to obscure the intelligence community misdeeds with regard to Russiagate.  The open involvement of the CIA, the association with national security (as in Russiagate), and the heightened polarization (you are either for or against Trump regardless of the facts), are all designed to invalidate the investigation by the Trump Administration into the CIA's and FBI's handling of Russiagate.
5. The fact remains that the outstanding crimes were committed by the intelligence community, with the encouragement and at times funding from the Democrats.  Whereas both sides have reasonable cases with regard to the Ukrainian investigation, the same cannot be said for the original Russiagate.  Questionable anti-Russian / Cold War intelligence activity encouraged the coup in Ukraine and the subsequent fallout.  
6. The Russians have a much better foreign policy record in the 21st century as opposed to the Americans.
1. The Russians were right about WMDs and the advisability of toppling Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003.  The U.S. was disastrously wrong.
2. In Libya and Syria, the U.S. misjudged badly, leaving these two regions in chaos and severely damaging U.S. credibility.  Russia judged correctly that they could help restore the peace in Syria through military assistance.
3. With regard to Iran and Yemen, the U.S. has sided with Saudi Arabia and taken an extreme position against Iran.  Russia has been more centrist with regard to the Sunni-Shia conflict, and has avoided the entanglements that have further damaged U.S. credibility in the region and around the world.
4. In Georgia, the U.S. (led by John McCain) did a lot of saber rattling after Russia moved in to protect Russian sympathizers in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  But ultimately the U.S. did nothing and Russia achieved its aims.
5. In Ukraine, the U.S. assisted in the replacement of a Russia friendly government by a U.S. friendly government.  However, Russia annexed Crimea and Russian sympathizers control eastern Ukraine.  Ukraine itself is unstable since the 2014 coup, and U.S. politics have been rendered unstable in part as a result of the fallout from this region as demonstrated in the current impeachment imbroglio.  
6. With regard to China, the U.S. is engaged in another Cold War, while the Russians have improved relations.
7. In large part because of U.S./U.K. blunders in the Middle East, Europe has been swamped with refugees and a populist backlash against governments throughout the region.  Brexit is the most obvious disastrous result of the failed policies of the U.S. and U.K. military-intelligence establishment.

(Update 11/3/2019:   Scott Ritter has a good summary of the Russian foreign policy success: 
Russia Isn't Getting the Recognition It Deserves on Syria)

In summary, the U.S. military-intelligence complex has a disastrous record over the last 20 years.  American influence has fallen dramatically, while the Russia has a record of success, strength, and prudence (e.g. Iran) in comparison.  Rather than acknowledge their mistakes, the political-intelligence establishment in the U.S. has doubled down on Russia being the root of our problems, including the election of Trump in 2016.  

The hope is that a restoration of centrist leadership (a la Clinton, Bush, and Obama) will lead to a restoration of American power to dealing with Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, China, Venezuela, etc.  We refuse to acknowledge that Russian success vis-a-vis the United States is a result of their doing better with the facts (Iraq 2003) and being more realistic on the battlefield (Syria, Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine) and in the diplomatic arena (Iran, China).  The CIA's job is to advance American interests around the world and they have failed miserably, yet they are now moving more forcefully into domestic politics.

Trump, on the other hand, has no coherent strategy for dealing with foreign affairs.  He's hired and fired neo-con monster John Bolton, and still works closely with neo-con leaders such as Pompeo and Barr.  He's needed their inside help to fight Russiagate and now Ukrainegate.  He's in a desperate fight to do what?  Protect himself from a CIA led coup.

My guess is that impeachment proceedings will end in stalemate.  Despite the apparent strength of the CIA/media/Democratic position, the Trump Republicans and their allies will not be easily defeated in such a short time.  Here are some related thoughts:

• Impeachment will be unpopular with U.S. voters.  It's a distraction from the issues we care about.  Public squabbling amongst intelligence agencies and senior politicians will result in the airing of a lot of dirty laundry, ultimately helping Trump's populist stance and harming the centrist Democrats.
• Democrats have the mainstream media on their side in unprecedented fashion.  Thus, there may be high confidence (overconfidence?) by the Democrats and their CIA allies that they will prevail in the court of public opinion.
• The presidential battle will be closely contested, with the populist unpopularity of impeachment somewhat offsetting the mainstream media support for the Democrats.
• The state of the economy will be important, as always, to the incumbent's prospects for reelection.  An additional factor this election, however, is that Trump has a reputation as an economic populist -- who poses a challenge to the economic status quo.  
• If the Democrats nominate a populist such as Elizabeth Warren, they will be in position to benefit from economic weakness.  Economic strength would favor Trump in this case.
• If the Democrats nominate a status quo figure such as Biden, Republicans will be in a better position to benefit from economic weakness.  Economic strength would favor Biden in this case.
• I think the Dems will nominate Warren, who is the only plausible candidate to bridge the Clinton-Sanders divide that plagues the party.  So Dems will be hoping for economic weakness (recession) in 2020.  They can blame this on Trump without having to defend their own questionable ties to the economic status quo.
• The military-intelligence community will be wary of a potential Warren presidency, as well as being divided internally.  Once impeachment fails in the Senate, they will recede from the public view, somewhat chastened.  They have no viable political path forward unless Biden (or another from the Clinton camp) wins the nomination.
• The mainstream media will endorse Warren as an alternative to Trump.
• Many of the wealthy will be against a potential Warren presidency.  But they will be split between pro and anti Trump factions, with more being anti-Trump.
• Trump will try to boost the stock market and the economy by getting a trade agreement with China.  Ironically, this could be discouraged by the intelligence community, engaged as it is at the moment in intense infighting.  Also, Dems and the mainstream media will be reluctant to support such as a measure during the impeachment battle and its aftermath.  And China will be reluctant to make a deal with Trump, given his hostility and unreliability. Thus, Trump's efforts to jumpstart the economy will fail and the country will slip into recession.
• Warren will win the presidency, and the country will get a fresh start in economic and foreign policy affairs.  

Update 11/2/2019;  The proceeding was written on October 2, 2019.  Since then, there has been a major development which could improve the prospects for impeachment:  Trump withdrew some troops from Syria leading many neo-conservative Republicans (e.g. Lindsay Graham) to turn against him.  As Tim Kavanaugh wrote, 

The Empire Steps Back: Trump Withdraws From Syria – Impeachment Now Possible:

the simmering bipartisan concern about Trump that has been brought to a boil by recent series of events and decisions: his unreliability as a trigger-puller, his aversion to ordering big military attacks. This is certainly a damning fault in the eyes of most Republicans (as well as Democrats), a disqualifying failure or responsibility from the warden of the US empire. That’s the impeachable offense that could well get enough Republican votes to convict him.

I'm still hopeful that impeachment will fail; i.e. that domestic politics and the truth will not be a victim of the renewed cold war.  But it's a fine line when impeachment is driven by the CIA and issues related to the Ukraine-Russia dispute.


Update 1/22/2020:

• Trump assassinated Soleimani and kept troops in Syria.  He seems to be doing enough aggressive military stuff to keep Republicans, and their military - intelligence - industrial supporters, on his side.  So impeachment will likely fail soon.
• Trump is talking up a middle class tax this year.  That will be very popular.
• Warren has now sided with the Clinton wing over the Sanders wing.  This effectively dooms the Democrats, in my opinion.  They are hopelessly divided.
• So Trump will most likely be reelected, much to the dismay and anguish of Democrats.    My efforts to make 2020 a good year will be rejected as failure by friends and family.  People will despair of and be unwilling to talk about politics.  Eventually, however, perhaps in 2021, it will sink in that we need to unite the progressive wing of the Democratic party with the failed center wing.  As in 2017, progressives will emerge stronger.  
• Another alternative is that the progressive wing of the Democrats will split off into another party.  This, in fact, may be the most likely.  If this happens, professional Democrats, such as my daughter, will be in a difficult spot.
• Reasons why the Democrats are imploding and may not survive:
• They are pursuing impeachment which will expose their own corruption more than anything else.
• They fully bought into Russiagate which will be exposed as fraudulent.
• The leadership has lost the confidence of much of the base.  
• Identity politics is practiced, leaving the party fractured along various demographic lines.
• I hope I'm wrong and the party comes together!

Update 1/23/2020:  The Black Agenda Report that a breakup of the Democratic party is as likely to come from the right -- Bloomberg leading a 3rd party if Bernie wins the nomination -- as from the left (a mass defection of Sanders' supporters).