Society in Perspective

I just finished reading Coronavirus: A Theory of Incompetence, along with all the comments following the main article.  The thesis seems to be that U.S. culture is in poor shape because of complacency.  We're spoiled!  Beyond that, we're beguiled by the financial system, where things of real value pale in comparison to the daily rhythms of money and debt.

Roman Empire Revisited

There is really no doubt that empires age, and that ours is an aging empire.  Success breeds complacency.  There's really no value in bemoaning this basic human condition.  Rather, it's better to embrace the section of the serenity prayer:

Have the patience to accept that which you cannot change.

There will be setbacks to our global preeminence, and hard lessons will have to be learned.  Moaning and groaning about this general state of affairs is like singing the blues.  I suppose it can be healthy if done empathetically.

Excessive Financialization 

Here the targets are more obvious.  For example, Bernie Sanders has done quite well in pointing out the basic absurdities.  This movement will inevitably continue as class conflict goes is inherent in civilization.  There are prospects for success in this arena on a day to day and year to year basis.  

In addition to improving governance, we must try to navigate the system at a personal level.  I have been skeptical of the stock market for more than a decade now, but it has generally gone up.  And the government intervenes when it goes down.  While connected to the aging empire reality, the financial system is something that we have more control over.  Some of us, at least, can play the markets and emerge stronger if we judge the political economy correctly.  This is not just a question of economics, but also of sociology.

While I have long been a deflationist, I am now expecting inflation in consumer goods.  

• Supplies of goods and services have been disrupted.
• Retrenchment is likely to reverse the trend of labor markets competing on a global scale.
• Demand will be kept high via massive deficit spending at the national levels.  In the U.S., $2 trillion dollars of stimulation was just passed, for example.
• It is dawning on more and more people that money is created out of thin air -- not borrowed as in the conventional wisdom.  Austerity advocates will be defeated by Trump like politicians creating money to deal with problems and win favor with powerful constituencies.

So I'm contemplating selling my long term U.S. Treasury bonds and buying inflation protected Treasury bonds.   This is just one small action, but we're not all powerless to just be carried along by the societal drift.  The larger societal issues of financial fairness and enforceability of laws will play out, with a downward reset being inevitable in my opinion.  This is part of the natural ebb and flow of civilization.