Crimea

Crimea as a Focal Point for the Ukraine War

Summary

The current events in Ukraine make sense (to me) if the West is seen as the aggressor with a primary goal being the (re)conquest of Crimea. Thus, the summer 2023 Ukrainian offensive (in the direction of Crimea) is a last gasp attempt to fulfill the initial objectives of the war.

The main inspiration for this idea is an article from April 2023 which made sense to me at the time and has improved in my estimation with age and additional data points: 
The Planning Of The Ukraine Invasion From The Russian Point Of View, by Gaius Baltar

Western Objectives

1. To tie down the Russian Army in the Donbass

2. To carry out a surprise attack on the Crimean peninsula

3. To bog down and bleed the Russian Army in the Donbass with the goal of engineering a regime change in Russia

Russian Objectives

Objective 1 (main objective): To capture Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to create a buffer zone between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine. 

Objective 2 (secondary objective): Advance on Kiev in an extremely threatening manner. The Ukrainians would have no choice but to take the threat seriously and move forces toward Kiev, including the forces intended for the Crimean operation.

Objective 3 (secondary objective): To force Ukraine to negotiate peace on Russian terms. The Russians most likely assumed that if the Kherson/ Zaporizhzhia buffer operation was successful the Ukrainians might want to negotiate. They would want to negotiate not only because Kiev was threatened, but primarily because their main objective, the capture of Crimea, had been thwarted. This part of the plan was partly successful because the Ukrainians were ready to sign a treaty before the Americans and the British intervened.

Some Data Points

I won't try to list all the data points which support (or contradict) his hypothesis here. Rather, this is more of a notepad.

• March 16, 2014: In a rejection of the coup and the unconstitutional installation of an anti-Russian government in Kiev, Crimeans vote by 97 percent to join Russia in a referendum with 89 percent turn out. The Wagner private military organization is created to support Crimea. Virtually no shots are fired and no one was killed in what Western media wrongly portrays as a “Russian invasion of Crimea.” (from Ukraine Timeline Tells the Story)

• March 24, 2021: On that day, Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree for the recapture of the Crimea, and began to deploy his forces to the south of the country. At the same time, several NATO exercises were conducted between the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, accompanied by a significant increase in reconnaissance flights along the Russian border.

• March 26, 2022: Biden admits in a speech in Warsaw that the U.S. is seeking through its proxy war against Russia to overthrow the Putin government. (from Ukraine Timeline Tells the Story)

• June 5, 2023: Shunning diplomacy, Ukraine plans to take Crimea 'hostage'

According to the Washington Post, a key component of the Ukrainian government’s strategy is to surround Crimea with heavy weaponry, thereby “holding hostage the peninsula that is home to Russia’s prized Black Sea Fleet.”  The plan was previewed four months ago by senior US official Victoria Nuland, who declared that “Ukraine is not going to be safe unless Crimea is at a minimum, at a minimum, demilitarized,” and that “we are supporting that.” 

• July 17, 2023:  Ukraine attacked for a second time one of Russian President Vladimir’s proudest achievements: the 11.25-mile Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia.  Ukraine initially attacked the bridge last October. The Biden administration’s role in both attacks was vital. [Seymour Hersh]

• July 26, 2023: Ukraine has launched the main thrust of its counteroffensive, throwing in thousands of troops held in reserve, many of them Western-trained and equipped, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, hours after Russian officials reported major Ukrainian attacks in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. [NYTimes] 

• August 5, 2023:  Early this year, Ukraine began to outfit two separate ‘army corps’ of maneuver brigades specifically for the coming ‘counter-offensive’. These were the 9th Corps and the 10th Corps. The 9th Corps was meant to be the—mostly—NATO-armed and trained one which was famously revealed in the Pentagon leaks.  The 9th experienced catastrophic losses from the start of the offensive on June 4th onward.  So the 9th Corps was not able to reach Russia’s first line of defense and the brigades had appeared to be too degraded to go on any further, many of them withdrawn to refit/reconstitute in the rear. The 10th Corps was then injected prematurely to take over, which is what this new ‘second phase’ has been all about since the end of July. In the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry Ukraine sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to U.S. and European officials. “The counteroffensive itself hasn’t failed; it will drag on for several months into the fall,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who recently visited the front lines. But analysts question whether this second wave, relying on attacks by smaller units, will generate enough combat power and momentum to allow Ukrainian troops to push through Russian defenses. Gian Luca Capovin and Alexander Stronell, analysts with the British security intelligence firm Janes, said that the small-unit attack strategy “is extremely likely to result in mass casualties, equipment loss and minimal territorial gains” for Ukraine. [Simplicius76, NYTimes]

I've been trying to figure out why Ukraine and the West have been going all out in this offensive in the direction of Crimea.  They have been taking massive losses of soldiers and equipment with no significant gains.  This makes sense if the war was originally offensive in nature for the West -- i.e. they planned and expected to take Crimea all along.  The current offensive is a belated follow through of the original plan which was initialled derailed by Russia's offensive in the south. The West doesn't have any other plans consistent with their original objective.

Ruble is Mightier than the Sword

 The West apparently expected to win the war against Russia economically.  After all, that is how the West "won" the Cold War.  However, it has not worked out as expected.  Russia's economy is doing well and the sanctions are failing.  Moreover, the sanctions are boomeranging against the West as the rest of the world is now intensifying efforts to avoid dependence upon the U.S. led empire.

In my opinion, the West has vastly underestimated Russia in this regard. The "gas station masquerading as a country" has turned out to be much more in terms of technology, manufacturing, and diplomacy.

The Russian Color Revolution

White, blue, and red -- the colors of the Russian flag.  Apparently there's been a tremendous outburst of patriotism: Patrick Lancaster  Also:  Scarlet Sails Graduation.  Incredible patriotism, and no mean-spritedness to be seen.

mmm

Realism, Morality, and the Leviathan

I believe in the concept of the Leviathan, and that it's immoral to encourage people to physically attack when death and destruction at the hands of the Leviathon are certain. But there are many instances where there is no clear Leviathan. The correct moral choice may indeed depend upon the correct assessment of military / police strength.

Reassessing Western Democracy, Part 2

 Clash of Civilizations

A month ago I wrote Reassesing Western Democracy, Part 1.  Since then, I've read a couple of books which shed further light on the subject:

• The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, 1996 by Samuel P. Huntington

• The Declassification Engine, What History Reveals About America's Top Secrets, 2023 by Matthew Connelly

These two books help immensely in consolidating my world view. Basically, I believe Western democracy has become dysfunctional and is ripe for extensive revision.

The Clash of Civilizations clarifies the nature of our world. There are approximately 10 major civilizations.  Absent the apocalypse, these civilizations will endure and develop independently.  Technology will spread, but the cultures and institutions will remain distinct for the foreseeable future.  Civilizational leaders would be wise to respect the other civilizations to preserve order in the world.

The Ukraine War shows what happens when there is a lack of respect for other civilizations. Russia (historically Orthodox Slavic Christianity) is one of the world's major civilizations. Prominent leaders in the West (Lindsay Graham and John McCain) have dismissed Russia as "a gas station masquerading as a country". This has been a bipartisan affair in the West, with Democrat Adam Schiff calling for us to fight Russia in Ukraine so we don't have to fight them here.  President Trump was impeached for hesitating in supplying weapons to Ukraine.  The mainstream media in the West has been united with the political and cultural leadership in denigrating Russia and encouraging military confrontation on its historical territory.

Other civilizations are siding with Russia against the West.  

Assessing the Alternatives

If Western civilization is failing, what about the alternatives? What do we know about Russia, China and east Asia, the Islamic World, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa?  I have been impressed with Putin.  Russia under his leadership is providing a much needed intervention with regard to the dysfunctional West.  China under Xi also seems like a credible alternative.  

Thanks to Russia, in my view, no country need feel ashamed of its leadership.  Almost every non-Western country has traditionally been seen, at least in the West, as being inferior to the Western democracies.  Francis Fukuyama even posited the end-point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.  The 21st century has not been kind to this world view.  From the Iraq War in 2003, to the great financial crisis of 2008, to the Trump presidency in 2016, to the Ukraine proxy war in 2022, Western democracy now appears weak.  No one could admit this until Russia took on the West militarily.  

The list of countries that have broken from the grip of the Western empire since Russia stood up to them, with the support of China, is impressive: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Pakistan have joined pariah nations such as Iran and Venezuela in asserting their independence and refusing to join the West in sanctioning Russia.  Modi, Erdogan, bin Salman, Ramaphosa, and their brethren are no longer second class world leaders, shamed by the West as imperfect democracies.  Rather it is the Western "democracies" that, in my view, stand out as unpopular and hypocritical.  The Western intelligence agencies (chiefly U.S. and Britain) have longed subverted democracy at home and abroad.  Nowhere is this clearer than in Ukraine, and suddenly people recognize that this has been happening around the world since WWII, including in their own countries.

So every country is now a potential alternative to our broken system of government.  But I'm a believer in Huntington's view of civilizations and the legitimacy of different approaches to national / civilizational leadership. Obviously, the Saudi or Iranian styles would not work in the U.S. Likewise the Chinese or Russian systems.  We need to go our own way, while recognizing the limitations of our current ideology.  

1. The deep (permanent) state is powerful for a reason. No country can survive a complete set of policy turnovers every 4 years.  Perhaps we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the Russian and Chinese models where leaders lead for 20 years or more.  

2. The dark (secret) state is powerful for a reason. No leader can lead effectively without a certain degree of control over the press.

Without a revolution, we can come terms with the limitations of our current system.  The 2-party charade is just that.  We have an establishment and it's not really up for election every 4 years, for better or worse.  The First Amendment is one of our great strengths, but our system of manufacturing consent is no longer working (if it was ever a net positive). We need to tone down our bluster, while addressing our free speech deficiencies, in my opinion.  In other words, we need to focus on what our real problems are and stop trying to scapegoat China, Russia, and other civilizations or factions within the West.

Constructive Ideas 

Arms Control

Scott Ritter is my inspiration for this. See Disarmament in the Time of Perestroika: Arms Control and the End of the Soviet Union.  It seems obvious to me that humankind will destroy itself if we don't learn to control our weaponry.  The major powers would only benefit by a return to the days of arms control treaties.  These worked well for decades, but seem (in my view and elsewhere) to have been undermined by the hegemonic impulses of the U.S.  We the people should make this our number one priority.  

The renewed Cold War and escalating arms race is abhorrent.  The U.S. is driving this, in my view.   Of course, Russia and China have their own deep, dark states and propaganda operations along with soaring military budgets. But the U.S. led West outspends these competitors by an order of magnitude (10 times).  We are the leader in the arms race and are in the best position to bring it under control.

Multipolar United Nations

The United Nations has always been a Europe-centric institution.  Of late, it has been compromised by the West and consequently unable to fulfill its mission. Its archaic and corrupt.  

No institution is perfect, but a better United Nations can help with many of the world's problems -- from arms control to climate degradation.  Jeffrey Sachs has a lot of good ideas in this regard.  

Xi and Putin talk about this all the time. Perhaps we can engage constructively on this issue.

History Lab

One of the great things about the West is that freedom of speech is a core value.  As discussed above, this right is not as absolute as we pretend.  Classification of documents for national security purposes is pervasive, and selective leaks and enforcement of secrecy laws has been weaponized for imperial and partisan purposes.  To some extent, this is unavoidable as there are tradeoffs between government efficiency and freedom.  

But we can work to strengthen this great value of our culture.  Leadership may need to come from the private sector, given the practical constraints our politicians face.  The History Lab is a team of scholars, designers, scientists, and engineers building tools to preserve the fabric of the past and provide lessons for the future. 

Election Reform 

Approval Voting

Approval voting is a single-winner voting method that allows voters to choose any number of candidates. The candidate chosen the most wins.  Benefits include:

• Tends to elect more consensus winners.  there will be incentives for candidates to cooperate in the sense of not bad mouthing other candidates.  This is "gaming" the system in a positive sense.

• Alternate candidates get a more accurate measure of support.

• Simplicity: 

• Ballots look the same, except the rules indicate that you may vote for any number of candidates

• Results are still easy to understand: a simple list of the candidates along with how many votes they received

Steve Randy Waldman is someone who has given specific changes a lot of thought and proposed constructive incremental changes.  You can find his ideas at interfluidity.com and drafts.interfluidity.com.

Conclusion

Obviously, these constructive ideas just scratch the surface of what we can do if we stop fighting one another and cooperate to improve the world. 

 

Thoughts of the Deep, Dark State

The Deep Dark State - definition. The state is a set of governing institutions. The deep state is the set of permanent institutions and employees, i,e, those not subject to change due to elections. The dark state is the set of governing people and institutions who have access to classified documents.

The deep and dark states need not be monolithic, just as the state itself can have various factions. 

However, the monetary incentives for the deep and dark states have a clear bias in supporting the status quo, and against competing civilizations.  The amount of money involved goes beyond the military-industrial complex to the overwhelming bulk of the economy. Thus, for example, people and institutions supporting Putin in the Ukraine War would not get far with the deep and dark states. Similarly, Bernie Sanders was for the most part opposed by the deep and dark states.

Good, patriotic intentions may be influenced by the need to earn a living and the desire to have greater agency.  There is something of a continuum on a line from patriotism to corruption.  This is true in every country.

The quesion, then, is: To what extent is one's worldview and culture based upon the more corrupt (or dysfunctional) end of the spectrum? How does this vary among countries and civilizations?

One possible conclusion is that all countries are equally corrupt and delusional.  Therefore, no war is justified.  Alternatively, one might argue that one should always support one's own country if it is impossible to judge who is right and who is wrong.  My personal opinion is that the details matter.  Some wars may be justified and others folly.  To the extent I still believe in democracy, I believe it is important to discuss the details.

Mother of all Losers

 The Biden Admininistration's foreign policy, in cooperation with NATO, is the worst ever.  

GOAL: Weaken Putin

RAND Corporation released a concerned report that Russia is learning how to fight NATO while modernizing its own army, and NATO is not getting any real, on the ground, hands-on experience themselves, at least nothing comparable to what Russian soldiers are getting through this conflict

In May 2023, over 80 percent of Russians approved of activities of the Russian President Vladimir Putin. The popularity level was five percent higher than in September 2022, when it stood at 77 percent.

Mercouris video on deplomatic relations (excerpts begin at 56:42):

At the G7 meeting Modi did say a lot of other things. He talked again about international law. He says Global Peace stability and prosperity is a common objective. In today's interconnected world, crisis in any one region affects all the countries and the developing countries which have limited resources are the worst affected.  These countries are facing the maximum and most profound impact of the food, fuel, and fertilizer crisis, and that's a clear rebuke to the Western powers. It raises the question as to why we are facing the need to discuss matters of peace and stability in distinct forums (such as G7) and not the United Nations which was established with the very purpose of establishing peace? Why does it often fail to prevent conflicts today? Why even the definition of terrorism has not been accepted in the United Nations? If introspection is done then one thing is clear -- The institutions created in the last century are not in line with the system of the 21st century. They do not reflect the realities of the present -- that is why it is necessary that reform should be given concrete shape in big institutions like the UN. The UN will also have to become the voice of the global South. Otherwise we will just keep talking and the U.N Security Council will become just a talk shop. Why is the United Nations dominated still by the victorious powers of the second World War? Why in effect do the Western Powers -- the United States, Britain, and France -- still have three permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council whereas the global South does not have a permanent representative?

Another leader who was also at the G7 and who was apparently extremely unhappy by the way that he was treated there and that was President of Brazil Lula de Silva.  So what does Lula de Silva do as soon as he gets back to Brazil -- he telephones President Putin...  The president of Brazil shared his impressions of participating in the recent G7 Summit and also outlined his vision of possible mediation efforts to find ways of resolving the conflict in Ukraine.  It's almost as if Lula were reporting to Putin about the G7. I wonder whether that means by the way that Lula in future might not receive invitations. It's been pointed out recently that South Africa, which is very much in the uh West's bad country list at the moment, was not invited to the G7....

We have an interesting contrast in diplomatic styles with Biden and Putin and their respective approaches to Erdogan.  

Putin telephones Erdogan and tells him: 

"We're delighted to see you reelected. You have our warm congratulations. We look forward to working with you on every conceivable issue in our relations." 

It's a warm and friendly call between Putin and Erdogan. 

By contrast, it is a lot more tense call from Biden. The call is purportedly to congratulate Erdogan over his re-election, but in practice is to put pressure on him, bully him perhaps might not be too strong a word, to remind him pointedly that he's a member of NATO and that comes with certain obligations. Turkey should in other words distance itself from the Russians and support the Western position over Ukraine.   The terseness of the Turkish readout confirms that relations between Russia and Turkey have steadily improved over the last couple of years, while relations between Turkey and the United States have steadily deteriorated.

In sum, Russian factories are running all out producing war goods, its military engineers are enhancing its weapons and related technologies, its military commanders are honing their battlefield tactics and practicing against the combined efforts of 31 NATO countries and 10 or more additional Western allies, Putin is more popular than any Western leader in his/her wildest dreams, Russia's economy is strong in the light of closer ties with countries such as China, India, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabian, etc, and Putin and Russia enjoy improved diplomatic relations with many of the world's most powerful nations.

This is failure on an epic scale. Time to double down! 

It was reported last week that fearful of leaks, Ukraine has shared their offensive plans with only a tiny handful of people in the West. Apparently Lindsay Graham was one of them, as a new Politico piece reports with joy that Graham has been given a very thorough ‘deep-dive’ of the full offensive plans, which he calls very ‘impressive’. He further says that the Russians are in for a big surprise and ‘rude awakening’.

Lindsay Graham, Friend of Ukraine

Lindsay Graham is one of the good (non-Trump) Republicans:

"It was reported last week that fearful of leaks, Ukraine has shared their offensive plans with only a tiny handful of people in the West. Apparently Lindsay Graham was one of them, as a new Politico piece reports with joy that Graham has been given a very thorough ‘deep-dive’ of the full offensive plans, which he calls very ‘impressive’. He further says that the Russians are in for a big surprise and ‘rude awakening’."

But Graham has already done so much for Ukraine:

"In 2016, the United States committed to arming Ukraine to fight and win a war against Russia. A video, filmed during John McCain’s visit to Ukraine in 2016, has resurfaced. It shows the senator accompanied by his colleague and friend, Senator Lindsey Graham, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. In this video, Senators Graham and McCain assure that the U.S. will give all the weapons necessary for them to succeed in defeating Russia." 

#unprovoked 

Update from the Far East

 It's been a quiet week in Lake Wobegon.  Actually, nothing could be further from the truth, but this afternoon finds me comfortably back in my home office.  Where's Waldo?

I get to watch and hear all the events in the neighborhood, including the continuing march of the ants back and forth along the telephone (internet) wire).  The ants go marching one by one, hurrah!

https://photos.app.goo.gl/xa7YN9AgG4GxLGqw6 (Click the play button on the previous link to get the full experience.) 

Before getting into the bad news, and in light of my recent Debbie Downer email, I'd like to share a short video clip which is like water to a thirsty soul, restoring one's faith in humanity:  Click the link below and turn on the volume....

https://twitter.com/rolandgarros/status/1663674562859417600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1663674562859417600%7Ctwgr%5Eed4c13631ff6498419d86efd8657da87a4de4dd5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-10730925632232892875.ampproject.net%2F2303151529000%2Fframe.html 

If you don't get Twitter, you can get the idea on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7__ptFjYhV8 

On the more traumatic news.  

• First, I've come through the last week as a committed Asia-phile.  The people in Singapore were some of the friendliest I've ever encountered.  And the Philippines is not only much more more modern than before, but even more friendly in my experience
• Technology is a big nothing burger in both countries, in a good (Buddhist) way.  .  When it works, and it usually does with some patience, the end result is nothing.   Your bureaucratic problems are solved because of the technology, and all you notice is that you can get on with enjoying the people and environment around you.
• Speaking of technology, our travel arrangements to Singapore, handled completely from Detroit over the Internet, worked out perfectly.  Cebu Pacific Air was a delight, as was the Swissôtel Stamford Singapore
• I've never spent so much on a hotel before, but with Lily's difficulty walking, I wanted to be right in the center of the action.  I was able to save significant money by not buying any travel insurance on the flight and hotel.
• The first 4 days were a challenge but went as I'd hoped.   We toured Gardens by the  Bay, Little India, Kampong Glam, the British colonial district, home of the SIngapore Sling, dazzling technological, floral, and botanical displays, subways, taxis, buses, underground malls, incredibly diverse linguistic and cultural society with apparently thriving markets, harbors, historical treasures, ...
  a few photos

I'm a great believer in the miracles of neoliberal capitalism!  Ok, I'm partly kidding here.  I think technology along with greatly increased trade and "development" are generally good things, but also lead to hardships on the lower classes whose ways of life become endangered prices (e.g. energy) soar). Great for tourists however!

Seriously, though, I've been knocked off my feet by the friendliness of the locals in Singapore and Philippines.  Something serious and cross-cultural is going on.  I had been tipped off by a friend to look for signs of Lee Kuan Yew and his Asian Values movement.  I did look for signs, saw them, and as usual enjoyed an ego boost through confirmation bias.  Hooray for the Lees! (Lee Kuan Yew's eldest son Lee Hsien Loong is current prime minister of Singapore, and BongBong Marcos (son of old favorite dictator Ferdinand) is current president of the Philippines. I've been listening (via Audibile books). to a 1990s   non-fiction classic - The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, by Samuel P. Huntington.  He seems to have pretty much nailed, 25 years before the fact, the Ukraine War and the ongoing crises of civilizations.  

 

Back to the personal saga::  On day 5 of our 8 day pilgrimage in Singapore,  we woke up with what I can only describe as an acute respiratory illness of some sort.  That was pretty much the end of our Singapore vacation, with the main excitement then being getting out of the hotel amidst a non-stop barrage of phlegm and nose running and coughing. and embarking upon the 12 your excursion back here to Home Sweet Home!!!! (Be it ever so humble and all that.) We left the air-conditioned hotel, took a air-conditioned taxi ride to the air-conditioned airport, I lost my cool swearing at the technological obstacles to check-in, we sat on the plane, packed like sardines, wearing n95 masks while continually coughing sneezing and blowing my nose, were picked up at the airport in air-conditioned van by Lily'y neice and additional relatives, drove several hours to the port city of Batangas (southern Luzon), waited several hours on the van which was in turn on a roll-on-roll-off (ferry) boat headed for Lily's hometown of Calapan.  Another relative met us at the Calapan pier, after the 2 hour RoRoRide (say that five times real fast) and took us the last five minutes to Lily's abode here in barangay Libis in Calapan.  I proceeded to have the best night's sleep of my life as a massive storm swept through town in the wake of Typhoon Betty.  

Parts of Western Visayas and Mimaropa see heavy rain from 

the southwest monsoon, which is being enhanced by Typhoon Betty 

(Mawar), on Tuesday evening, May 30

Okay -- Back to watching the ants!

Classic Literature is Relevant

 We are living through times that bring to life classics such as these:

• The Scarlet Letter
• The Lottery
• The New Testament
• The Wizard of Oz
• The Emperor's New Clothes
• The Crucible
• Catch 22

See Durham, FBI Whistleblowers, and "The Great Loyalty Oath Crusade" (pay walled but I can forward text upon request to danielsecrest@gmail.com).  Excerpt:

The whole New Testament is about Captain Black, because the whole New Testament suggests that the reigning religion of Jerusalem has become hidebound and bureaucratic, and the priests are serving themselves. And then along comes this revolutionary Jesus who says, “Hey man. You’ve forgotten the spirit of your faith in the name of all of these requirements.” So whatever side of the New Testament you’re on, whether you’re a Jew or a Christian, I don’t know. But that’s the spirit of that book, which is anti-bureaucratic…

I highly recommend the whole article linked above.  It reflects my deepest beliefs.  Human nature does seem to be such that societies come to absurdity at moments in history like the present.  American, Russian, Judean -- it occurs repeatedly in different times and places.  I've learned to accept this and try to deal with it constructively, which means occasionally sharing my thoughts with those I love the most. 

Reassessing Western Democracy, Part 1

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man

The End of History and the Last Man is a 1992 book of political philosophy by American political scientist Francis Fukuyama which argues that with the ascendancy of Western liberal democracy—which occurred after the Cold War (1945–1991) and the dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991)—humanity has reached "not just ... the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such

It now seems to me that Fukuyama was wrong, and that Samuel Huntington was right --

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_Civilizations 

The Clash of Civilizations is a thesis that people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of conflict in the post–Cold War world. The American political scientist Samuel P. Huntington argued that future wars would be fought not between countries, but between cultures. It was proposed in a 1992 lecture at the American Enterprise Institute, which was then developed in a 1993 Foreign Affairs article titled "The Clash of Civilizations?", in response to his former student Francis Fukuyama's 1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man. 

Western liberal democracy is now descending. What are the alternatives, and how do we get from here to there?

Note the issue of agency.  Biden the person has little agency.  He is credited or blamed, but few believe that he is running things.  Compare this to Putin.  People, in the West especially, believe that he is running the Russian show and deserves all the blame (but strangely not the credit).  My view is that this reflects Western corruption.  Accountability is masked by weak and expendable political leaders.  

As an example of this, see Senate Report: Nearly 700 Former High-Ranking Pentagon and Other Government Officials Now Work at the Top 20 Defense Contractors.  

Derek Seidman details in a recent article in Truthout how many of the key architects of the Iraq War have benefited from the revolving door, finding positions with defense industry giants, tech firms and Wall Street investors, and enjoying the good life, raking in consulting and speaker fees, their images washed as they profit handsomely from the insider access they provide.

Where is the accountability in our democratic system for this disastrous war?  Putin and Xi are personally accountable and have lost zero wars between them in a combined 30 plus years of rule. Perhaps the Russian and Chinese systems have certain advantages that we should consider?

My knee jerk reaction is that  the Russian and Chinese systems merely look good because the West is self-destructing.  These are autocracies.  I am a child of the enlightenment and want to believe in democracy.  But democracy does not seem to have the record of success that is the conventional wisdom in the West.  I believed in this conventional wisdom, but now have doubts.

Neither liberal democracy nor conservative dictatorship (where fascism is an extreme outlier) can claim an obvious historical advantage in terms of social coordination at scale.  For example, the Roman Empire started out as a democracy of sorts (a republic), but morphed midway into an autocratic empire. Similarly, Greek democracy burned brightly for only a short time. American democracy has been going for a couple of hundred years, but is showing increasing signs of burning out as a liberal enterprise.  Neither China nor Russia have ever been liberal democracies, but are two of the most powerful states today.  European countries are mostly liberal democracies today, but came to power as conservative kingdoms 

The first step to building a better system of government is to recognize the deficiencies of our current system.  I favor an incremental approach, leveraging what works in our current system, and addressing our failings in light of what currently work elsewhere.  In subsequent posts, I will consider alternatives in a more detailed manner.